Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s fourth weekend of roughly $39 million after a 45% drop has left traders closely divided on the fifth frame, with 20-24 million outcomes commanding the strongest implied probabilities. The film’s exceptional early legs—powered by Tom Holland’s draw, strong word-of-mouth, and a record August run that has already pushed domestic totals past $855 million—support resilience, yet typical superhero decay patterns and the arrival of new competition like Insidious: Out of the Further point to further softening. Daily tracking shows accelerating weekday erosion, leaving the exact hold rate as the decisive swing factor before the Labor Day holiday window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 5th Weekend Box Office
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 5th Weekend Box Office
22-24m 49%
20-22m 48%
<20m 41%
26m+ 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
<20m
41%
20-22m
48%
22-24m
49%
24-26m
24%
26m+
28%
22-24m 49%
20-22m 48%
<20m 41%
26m+ 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
<20m
$1 Vol.
41%
20-22m
$0 Vol.
48%
22-24m
$0 Vol.
49%
24-26m
$0 Vol.
24%
26m+
$0 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 5th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 28 - 30) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s fourth weekend of roughly $39 million after a 45% drop has left traders closely divided on the fifth frame, with 20-24 million outcomes commanding the strongest implied probabilities. The film’s exceptional early legs—powered by Tom Holland’s draw, strong word-of-mouth, and a record August run that has already pushed domestic totals past $855 million—support resilience, yet typical superhero decay patterns and the arrival of new competition like Insidious: Out of the Further point to further softening. Daily tracking shows accelerating weekday erosion, leaving the exact hold rate as the decisive swing factor before the Labor Day holiday window.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 5th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 28 - 30) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 8:24 PM ET
Volume
$1End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 5th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 28 - 30) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s fourth weekend of roughly $39 million after a 45% drop has left traders closely divided on the fifth frame, with 20-24 million outcomes commanding the strongest implied probabilities. The film’s exceptional early legs—powered by Tom Holland’s draw, strong word-of-mouth, and a record August run that has already pushed domestic totals past $855 million—support resilience, yet typical superhero decay patterns and the arrival of new competition like Insidious: Out of the Further point to further softening. Daily tracking shows accelerating weekday erosion, leaving the exact hold rate as the decisive swing factor before the Labor Day holiday window.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 5th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 28 - 30) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$1End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s fourth weekend of roughly $39 million after a 45% drop has left traders closely divided on the fifth frame, with 20-24 million outcomes commanding the strongest implied probabilities. The film’s exceptional early legs—powered by Tom Holland’s draw, strong word-of-mouth, and a record August run that has already pushed domestic totals past $855 million—support resilience, yet typical superhero decay patterns and the arrival of new competition like Insidious: Out of the Further point to further softening. Daily tracking shows accelerating weekday erosion, leaving the exact hold rate as the decisive swing factor before the Labor Day holiday window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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