Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June anchors trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability for third place, as it sits comfortably behind Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million July debut while outpacing earlier 2026 bows like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $132 million start. Strong presales, premium-format performance, and franchise goodwill established Toy Story 5 as the year’s leading animated opening at the time, creating a high bar that later releases must clear to insert themselves in the top three. Dune: Messiah (7%), The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping (3%), Spider-Man: Brand New Day (2.6%), and Avengers: Doomsday (2.1%) trail due to later release windows, more modest early tracking, and holiday competition that historically compresses opening-weekend scale. Upcoming December chart updates and final tracking for Avengers: Doomsday and other tentpoles remain the key swing factors that could still alter the ranking.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Toy Story 5 89%
Dune: Messiah 7.0%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 3.0%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 2.7%
$17,323 Vol.
$17,323 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Toy Story 5
89%
Dune: Messiah
7%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
3%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
3%
Avengers: Doomsday
2%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
<1%
Toy Story 5 89%
Dune: Messiah 7.0%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 3.0%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 2.7%
$17,323 Vol.
$17,323 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Toy Story 5
$11,220 Vol.
89%
Dune: Messiah
$963 Vol.
7%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$692 Vol.
3%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$1,426 Vol.
3%
Avengers: Doomsday
$737 Vol.
2%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
$651 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June anchors trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability for third place, as it sits comfortably behind Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million July debut while outpacing earlier 2026 bows like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $132 million start. Strong presales, premium-format performance, and franchise goodwill established Toy Story 5 as the year’s leading animated opening at the time, creating a high bar that later releases must clear to insert themselves in the top three. Dune: Messiah (7%), The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping (3%), Spider-Man: Brand New Day (2.6%), and Avengers: Doomsday (2.1%) trail due to later release windows, more modest early tracking, and holiday competition that historically compresses opening-weekend scale. Upcoming December chart updates and final tracking for Avengers: Doomsday and other tentpoles remain the key swing factors that could still alter the ranking.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ET
Volume
$17,323End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June anchors trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability for third place, as it sits comfortably behind Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million July debut while outpacing earlier 2026 bows like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $132 million start. Strong presales, premium-format performance, and franchise goodwill established Toy Story 5 as the year’s leading animated opening at the time, creating a high bar that later releases must clear to insert themselves in the top three. Dune: Messiah (7%), The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping (3%), Spider-Man: Brand New Day (2.6%), and Avengers: Doomsday (2.1%) trail due to later release windows, more modest early tracking, and holiday competition that historically compresses opening-weekend scale. Upcoming December chart updates and final tracking for Avengers: Doomsday and other tentpoles remain the key swing factors that could still alter the ranking.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$17,323End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June anchors trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability for third place, as it sits comfortably behind Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million July debut while outpacing earlier 2026 bows like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $132 million start. Strong presales, premium-format performance, and franchise goodwill established Toy Story 5 as the year’s leading animated opening at the time, creating a high bar that later releases must clear to insert themselves in the top three. Dune: Messiah (7%), The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping (3%), Spider-Man: Brand New Day (2.6%), and Avengers: Doomsday (2.1%) trail due to later release windows, more modest early tracking, and holiday competition that historically compresses opening-weekend scale. Upcoming December chart updates and final tracking for Avengers: Doomsday and other tentpoles remain the key swing factors that could still alter the ranking.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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