Avengers: Doomsday holds the strongest market-implied odds at 58.5% for the second-biggest 2026 opening weekend, driven by its status as a major MCU crossover event with extensive pre-release tracking, franchise momentum, and historical precedent for superhero tentpoles dominating early-year box office. Multiple competing releases sit near 50%, reflecting trader uncertainty over release-date positioning, presale trajectories, and audience appetite amid a crowded slate that includes Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 40.5%. Lower-probability entries like Toy Story 5, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, and Dune: Messiah underscore the barriers posed by genre expectations and prior franchise performance. Key upcoming catalysts include final tracking updates and any late shifts in marketing or competition that could alter the deadlock.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Avengers: Doomsday 59%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 41%
Toy Story 5 <1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
$95,104 Vol.
$95,104 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Avengers: Doomsday
59%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
41%
Toy Story 5
<1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Dune: Messiah
<1%
Avengers: Doomsday 59%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 41%
Toy Story 5 <1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
$95,104 Vol.
$95,104 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Avengers: Doomsday
$38,626 Vol.
59%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$48,437 Vol.
41%
Toy Story 5
$2,679 Vol.
<1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$482 Vol.
<1%
Dune: Messiah
$3,600 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Avengers: Doomsday holds the strongest market-implied odds at 58.5% for the second-biggest 2026 opening weekend, driven by its status as a major MCU crossover event with extensive pre-release tracking, franchise momentum, and historical precedent for superhero tentpoles dominating early-year box office. Multiple competing releases sit near 50%, reflecting trader uncertainty over release-date positioning, presale trajectories, and audience appetite amid a crowded slate that includes Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 40.5%. Lower-probability entries like Toy Story 5, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, and Dune: Messiah underscore the barriers posed by genre expectations and prior franchise performance. Key upcoming catalysts include final tracking updates and any late shifts in marketing or competition that could alter the deadlock.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 11:25 AM ET
Volume
$95,104End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 11:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Avengers: Doomsday holds the strongest market-implied odds at 58.5% for the second-biggest 2026 opening weekend, driven by its status as a major MCU crossover event with extensive pre-release tracking, franchise momentum, and historical precedent for superhero tentpoles dominating early-year box office. Multiple competing releases sit near 50%, reflecting trader uncertainty over release-date positioning, presale trajectories, and audience appetite amid a crowded slate that includes Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 40.5%. Lower-probability entries like Toy Story 5, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, and Dune: Messiah underscore the barriers posed by genre expectations and prior franchise performance. Key upcoming catalysts include final tracking updates and any late shifts in marketing or competition that could alter the deadlock.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$95,104End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 11:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Avengers: Doomsday holds the strongest market-implied odds at 58.5% for the second-biggest 2026 opening weekend, driven by its status as a major MCU crossover event with extensive pre-release tracking, franchise momentum, and historical precedent for superhero tentpoles dominating early-year box office. Multiple competing releases sit near 50%, reflecting trader uncertainty over release-date positioning, presale trajectories, and audience appetite amid a crowded slate that includes Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 40.5%. Lower-probability entries like Toy Story 5, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, and Dune: Messiah underscore the barriers posed by genre expectations and prior franchise performance. Key upcoming catalysts include final tracking updates and any late shifts in marketing or competition that could alter the deadlock.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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