**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestically on July 31 and quickly became the second-highest-grossing film ever in North America, surpassing *Avengers: Endgame* at $858.3 million. As of August 27 it stood at roughly $869 million, with daily grosses now down to $2.8–4.9 million in its fifth week. With only four days remaining until the August 31 cutoff, the film would need an unrealistic surge of more than $30 million to reach the $900 million mark. Traders have priced the sub-$900 million outcome at 97% implied probability because the current run-rate and rapid decay make any higher bracket virtually unattainable before the market resolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)
<900m 97.0%
900 - 920m 3.6%
920 - 940m <1%
940 - 960m <1%
$549,228 Vol.
$549,228 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<900m
97%
900 - 920m
4%
920 - 940m
<1%
940 - 960m
<1%
960 - 980m
<1%
980 - 1000m
<1%
1000 - 1020m
<1%
1020 - 1040m
<1%
1040 - 1060m
<1%
1060 - 1080m
<1%
1080m+
<1%
<900m 97.0%
900 - 920m 3.6%
920 - 940m <1%
940 - 960m <1%
$549,228 Vol.
$549,228 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<900m
$124,398 Vol.
97%
900 - 920m
$114,911 Vol.
4%
920 - 940m
$44,638 Vol.
<1%
940 - 960m
$29,584 Vol.
<1%
960 - 980m
$20,264 Vol.
<1%
980 - 1000m
$8,360 Vol.
<1%
1000 - 1020m
$3,789 Vol.
<1%
1020 - 1040m
$1,764 Vol.
<1%
1040 - 1060m
$837 Vol.
<1%
1060 - 1080m
$873 Vol.
<1%
1080m+
$199,810 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestically on July 31 and quickly became the second-highest-grossing film ever in North America, surpassing *Avengers: Endgame* at $858.3 million. As of August 27 it stood at roughly $869 million, with daily grosses now down to $2.8–4.9 million in its fifth week. With only four days remaining until the August 31 cutoff, the film would need an unrealistic surge of more than $30 million to reach the $900 million mark. Traders have priced the sub-$900 million outcome at 97% implied probability because the current run-rate and rapid decay make any higher bracket virtually unattainable before the market resolves.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Volume
$549,228End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestically on July 31 and quickly became the second-highest-grossing film ever in North America, surpassing *Avengers: Endgame* at $858.3 million. As of August 27 it stood at roughly $869 million, with daily grosses now down to $2.8–4.9 million in its fifth week. With only four days remaining until the August 31 cutoff, the film would need an unrealistic surge of more than $30 million to reach the $900 million mark. Traders have priced the sub-$900 million outcome at 97% implied probability because the current run-rate and rapid decay make any higher bracket virtually unattainable before the market resolves.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$549,228End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestically on July 31 and quickly became the second-highest-grossing film ever in North America, surpassing *Avengers: Endgame* at $858.3 million. As of August 27 it stood at roughly $869 million, with daily grosses now down to $2.8–4.9 million in its fifth week. With only four days remaining until the August 31 cutoff, the film would need an unrealistic surge of more than $30 million to reach the $900 million mark. Traders have priced the sub-$900 million outcome at 97% implied probability because the current run-rate and rapid decay make any higher bracket virtually unattainable before the market resolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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