Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record-setting $360 million domestic opening weekend in late July has anchored trader consensus around its 57.5% implied probability for 2026’s biggest debut, fueled by unprecedented presales, $72 million in previews, premium-format strength, and word-of-mouth that quickly pushed the film past $1 billion globally. Avengers: Doomsday holds 43.5% on the strength of Robert Downey Jr.’s Doctor Doom casting, early trailer momentum, and aggressive December holiday tracking that positions it as a plausible challenger capable of topping $300 million domestically. Toy Story 5, Dune: Messiah, and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping remain at 0.1% each, limited by scale and release timing that cannot realistically match the Marvel tentpoles’ opening-weekend benchmarks. December chart updates and final presale data will determine whether Doomsday closes the gap before its release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich movie has biggest opening week in 2026?
Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 57%
Avengers: Doomsday 44%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
Dune: Messiah <1%
$84,921 Vol.
$84,921 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
57%
Avengers: Doomsday
44%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Dune: Messiah
<1%
Toy Story 5
<1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 57%
Avengers: Doomsday 44%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
Dune: Messiah <1%
$84,921 Vol.
$84,921 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$20,250 Vol.
57%
Avengers: Doomsday
$31,735 Vol.
44%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$3,404 Vol.
<1%
Dune: Messiah
$3,728 Vol.
<1%
Toy Story 5
$3,657 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record-setting $360 million domestic opening weekend in late July has anchored trader consensus around its 57.5% implied probability for 2026’s biggest debut, fueled by unprecedented presales, $72 million in previews, premium-format strength, and word-of-mouth that quickly pushed the film past $1 billion globally. Avengers: Doomsday holds 43.5% on the strength of Robert Downey Jr.’s Doctor Doom casting, early trailer momentum, and aggressive December holiday tracking that positions it as a plausible challenger capable of topping $300 million domestically. Toy Story 5, Dune: Messiah, and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping remain at 0.1% each, limited by scale and release timing that cannot realistically match the Marvel tentpoles’ opening-weekend benchmarks. December chart updates and final presale data will determine whether Doomsday closes the gap before its release.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volume
$84,921End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record-setting $360 million domestic opening weekend in late July has anchored trader consensus around its 57.5% implied probability for 2026’s biggest debut, fueled by unprecedented presales, $72 million in previews, premium-format strength, and word-of-mouth that quickly pushed the film past $1 billion globally. Avengers: Doomsday holds 43.5% on the strength of Robert Downey Jr.’s Doctor Doom casting, early trailer momentum, and aggressive December holiday tracking that positions it as a plausible challenger capable of topping $300 million domestically. Toy Story 5, Dune: Messiah, and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping remain at 0.1% each, limited by scale and release timing that cannot realistically match the Marvel tentpoles’ opening-weekend benchmarks. December chart updates and final presale data will determine whether Doomsday closes the gap before its release.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$84,921End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record-setting $360 million domestic opening weekend in late July has anchored trader consensus around its 57.5% implied probability for 2026’s biggest debut, fueled by unprecedented presales, $72 million in previews, premium-format strength, and word-of-mouth that quickly pushed the film past $1 billion globally. Avengers: Doomsday holds 43.5% on the strength of Robert Downey Jr.’s Doctor Doom casting, early trailer momentum, and aggressive December holiday tracking that positions it as a plausible challenger capable of topping $300 million domestically. Toy Story 5, Dune: Messiah, and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping remain at 0.1% each, limited by scale and release timing that cannot realistically match the Marvel tentpoles’ opening-weekend benchmarks. December chart updates and final presale data will determine whether Doomsday closes the gap before its release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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