Traders have priced the 40-64 bracket as the clear favorite at 51.5% implied probability for Elon Musk’s X posts across August 27-29 because his recent three-day windows have repeatedly settled in that range during periods of steady but unspectacular activity. On August 27-28 Musk posted comments on Grok’s Microsoft Foundry integration, SpaceX Starbase Louisiana updates, crime statistics, and lighter replies, maintaining a measured cadence without a major political or product announcement to drive engagement spikes. Historical patterns show his baseline of 15-20 daily posts rarely pushes three-day totals above 89 absent breaking news or viral threads, while the sub-40 and 65-89 brackets capture the main alternative scenarios if volume dips further or picks up modestly before the window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedElon Musk # tweets August 27 - August 29, 2026?
Elon Musk # tweets August 27 - August 29, 2026?
40-64 48%
<40 23%
65-89 20%
90-114 4.3%
$123,365 Vol.
$123,365 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
<40
23%
40-64
48%
65-89
20%
90-114
4%
115-139
1%
140-164
1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
1%
240+
<1%
40-64 48%
<40 23%
65-89 20%
90-114 4.3%
$123,365 Vol.
$123,365 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
<40
$26,868 Vol.
23%
40-64
$17,601 Vol.
48%
65-89
$11,430 Vol.
20%
90-114
$14,778 Vol.
4%
115-139
$15,515 Vol.
1%
140-164
$17,427 Vol.
1%
165-189
$6,956 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$7,191 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$1,879 Vol.
1%
240+
$4,384 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 27 12:00 PM ET to August 29, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders have priced the 40-64 bracket as the clear favorite at 51.5% implied probability for Elon Musk’s X posts across August 27-29 because his recent three-day windows have repeatedly settled in that range during periods of steady but unspectacular activity. On August 27-28 Musk posted comments on Grok’s Microsoft Foundry integration, SpaceX Starbase Louisiana updates, crime statistics, and lighter replies, maintaining a measured cadence without a major political or product announcement to drive engagement spikes. Historical patterns show his baseline of 15-20 daily posts rarely pushes three-day totals above 89 absent breaking news or viral threads, while the sub-40 and 65-89 brackets capture the main alternative scenarios if volume dips further or picks up modestly before the window closes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 27 12:00 PM ET to August 29, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$123,365End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 27 12:00 PM ET to August 29, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders have priced the 40-64 bracket as the clear favorite at 51.5% implied probability for Elon Musk’s X posts across August 27-29 because his recent three-day windows have repeatedly settled in that range during periods of steady but unspectacular activity. On August 27-28 Musk posted comments on Grok’s Microsoft Foundry integration, SpaceX Starbase Louisiana updates, crime statistics, and lighter replies, maintaining a measured cadence without a major political or product announcement to drive engagement spikes. Historical patterns show his baseline of 15-20 daily posts rarely pushes three-day totals above 89 absent breaking news or viral threads, while the sub-40 and 65-89 brackets capture the main alternative scenarios if volume dips further or picks up modestly before the window closes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 27 12:00 PM ET to August 29, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$123,365End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have priced the 40-64 bracket as the clear favorite at 51.5% implied probability for Elon Musk’s X posts across August 27-29 because his recent three-day windows have repeatedly settled in that range during periods of steady but unspectacular activity. On August 27-28 Musk posted comments on Grok’s Microsoft Foundry integration, SpaceX Starbase Louisiana updates, crime statistics, and lighter replies, maintaining a measured cadence without a major political or product announcement to drive engagement spikes. Historical patterns show his baseline of 15-20 daily posts rarely pushes three-day totals above 89 absent breaking news or viral threads, while the sub-40 and 65-89 brackets capture the main alternative scenarios if volume dips further or picks up modestly before the window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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