Canada’s government has repeatedly signaled it will not expel US Ambassador Pete Hoekstra, with Prime Minister Mark Carney stating Ottawa must maintain working relations with the Trump administration despite ongoing trade disputes and tariff measures. A large public petition seeking his declaration as persona non grata has collected hundreds of thousands of signatures and will reach Parliament this fall, yet it remains non-binding and carries no legal force to compel action. Diplomatic expulsions between the two countries are historically rare, reserved for severe interference, and current tensions center on economic negotiations rather than breaches of the Vienna Convention sufficient to trigger such a step. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability against expulsion by year-end, though a sharp escalation in bilateral disputes could still introduce limited uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Canada expels the United States Ambassador to Canada between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Canada’s government has repeatedly signaled it will not expel US Ambassador Pete Hoekstra, with Prime Minister Mark Carney stating Ottawa must maintain working relations with the Trump administration despite ongoing trade disputes and tariff measures. A large public petition seeking his declaration as persona non grata has collected hundreds of thousands of signatures and will reach Parliament this fall, yet it remains non-binding and carries no legal force to compel action. Diplomatic expulsions between the two countries are historically rare, reserved for severe interference, and current tensions center on economic negotiations rather than breaches of the Vienna Convention sufficient to trigger such a step. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability against expulsion by year-end, though a sharp escalation in bilateral disputes could still introduce limited uncertainty.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Canada expels the United States Ambassador to Canada between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:03 AM ET
Volume
$106End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:03 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Canada expels the United States Ambassador to Canada between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Canada’s government has repeatedly signaled it will not expel US Ambassador Pete Hoekstra, with Prime Minister Mark Carney stating Ottawa must maintain working relations with the Trump administration despite ongoing trade disputes and tariff measures. A large public petition seeking his declaration as persona non grata has collected hundreds of thousands of signatures and will reach Parliament this fall, yet it remains non-binding and carries no legal force to compel action. Diplomatic expulsions between the two countries are historically rare, reserved for severe interference, and current tensions center on economic negotiations rather than breaches of the Vienna Convention sufficient to trigger such a step. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability against expulsion by year-end, though a sharp escalation in bilateral disputes could still introduce limited uncertainty.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Canada expels the United States Ambassador to Canada between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$106End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:03 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Canada’s government has repeatedly signaled it will not expel US Ambassador Pete Hoekstra, with Prime Minister Mark Carney stating Ottawa must maintain working relations with the Trump administration despite ongoing trade disputes and tariff measures. A large public petition seeking his declaration as persona non grata has collected hundreds of thousands of signatures and will reach Parliament this fall, yet it remains non-binding and carries no legal force to compel action. Diplomatic expulsions between the two countries are historically rare, reserved for severe interference, and current tensions center on economic negotiations rather than breaches of the Vienna Convention sufficient to trigger such a step. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability against expulsion by year-end, though a sharp escalation in bilateral disputes could still introduce limited uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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