Stronger-than-expected second-quarter GDP growth, fueled by semiconductor exports amid the global AI boom, combined with inflation remaining above the Bank of Korea’s 2% target and persistent financial-stability risks from record household debt exceeding 2,000 trillion won, has driven the 70.5% market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the August 27 meeting. The BOK’s July 25-basis-point increase to 2.75% and subsequent hawkish communications reinforced expectations of continued tightening, though softer July headline inflation, a firmer won, and caution over debt-servicing burdens support the 31.5% odds of no change. Economists remain split, with surveys showing narrow divides between consecutive hikes and a data-dependent pause ahead of the revised growth outlook release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBank of Korea decision in August?
Bank of Korea decision in August?
25 bps hike 71%
No Change 32%
50+ bps cut <1%
25 bps cut <1%
$61,103 Vol.
$61,103 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
50+ bps cut
<1%
25 bps cut
<1%
No Change
32%
25 bps hike
71%
50+ bps hike
<1%
25 bps hike 71%
No Change 32%
50+ bps cut <1%
25 bps cut <1%
$61,103 Vol.
$61,103 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
50+ bps cut
$3,699 Vol.
<1%
25 bps cut
$4,635 Vol.
<1%
No Change
$26,258 Vol.
32%
25 bps hike
$22,159 Vol.
71%
50+ bps hike
$4,353 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.Stronger-than-expected second-quarter GDP growth, fueled by semiconductor exports amid the global AI boom, combined with inflation remaining above the Bank of Korea’s 2% target and persistent financial-stability risks from record household debt exceeding 2,000 trillion won, has driven the 70.5% market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the August 27 meeting. The BOK’s July 25-basis-point increase to 2.75% and subsequent hawkish communications reinforced expectations of continued tightening, though softer July headline inflation, a firmer won, and caution over debt-servicing burdens support the 31.5% odds of no change. Economists remain split, with surveys showing narrow divides between consecutive hikes and a data-dependent pause ahead of the revised growth outlook release.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
Market Opened: May 28, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$61,103End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
May 28, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.Stronger-than-expected second-quarter GDP growth, fueled by semiconductor exports amid the global AI boom, combined with inflation remaining above the Bank of Korea’s 2% target and persistent financial-stability risks from record household debt exceeding 2,000 trillion won, has driven the 70.5% market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the August 27 meeting. The BOK’s July 25-basis-point increase to 2.75% and subsequent hawkish communications reinforced expectations of continued tightening, though softer July headline inflation, a firmer won, and caution over debt-servicing burdens support the 31.5% odds of no change. Economists remain split, with surveys showing narrow divides between consecutive hikes and a data-dependent pause ahead of the revised growth outlook release.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
Volume
$61,103End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
May 28, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Stronger-than-expected second-quarter GDP growth, fueled by semiconductor exports amid the global AI boom, combined with inflation remaining above the Bank of Korea’s 2% target and persistent financial-stability risks from record household debt exceeding 2,000 trillion won, has driven the 70.5% market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the August 27 meeting. The BOK’s July 25-basis-point increase to 2.75% and subsequent hawkish communications reinforced expectations of continued tightening, though softer July headline inflation, a firmer won, and caution over debt-servicing burdens support the 31.5% odds of no change. Economists remain split, with surveys showing narrow divides between consecutive hikes and a data-dependent pause ahead of the revised growth outlook release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions