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icon for AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
Tech·AI

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

icon for AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
Tech·AI

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

80% chance
Polymarket

$118,657 Vol.

80% chance
Polymarket

$118,657 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent rapid gains on Epoch AI’s FrontierMath benchmark—now featuring corrected v2 problems across Tiers 1-4—underpin the 79.5% market-implied odds. Top models such as OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants have reached 83% on Tier 4, with Claude Fable 5 and similar systems close behind at 87%+ on core tiers, up sharply from sub-2% scores in late 2024 and 40%+ ranges earlier in 2026. This trajectory reflects scaling laws, enhanced reasoning chains, and targeted math training that close the gap on expert-level problems requiring hours or days of effort. With roughly 16 months until the 2027 deadline and ongoing releases expected from major labs, traders see saturation above 90% as the base case, tempered by benchmark difficulty and potential evaluation constraints.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$118,657
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent rapid gains on Epoch AI’s FrontierMath benchmark—now featuring corrected v2 problems across Tiers 1-4—underpin the 79.5% market-implied odds. Top models such as OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants have reached 83% on Tier 4, with Claude Fable 5 and similar systems close behind at 87%+ on core tiers, up sharply from sub-2% scores in late 2024 and 40%+ ranges earlier in 2026. This trajectory reflects scaling laws, enhanced reasoning chains, and targeted math training that close the gap on expert-level problems requiring hours or days of effort. With roughly 16 months until the 2027 deadline and ongoing releases expected from major labs, traders see saturation above 90% as the base case, tempered by benchmark difficulty and potential evaluation constraints.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$118,657
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 80% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 80¢, the market collectively assigns a 80% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" has generated $118.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" is 80% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 80% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.