Moonshot AI's July launch of the large open-source Kimi K3 model, which topped certain independent benchmarks including Arena.ai evaluations ahead of some U.S. frontier systems, has elevated its implied probability near 46% for the #3 AI lab slot by end of August. Google maintains close contention at 39.5% through ongoing Gemini updates and enterprise positioning, while Z.ai and Meta trail at single-digit odds on GLM-5 and Llama momentum. The even split among leading outcomes reflects rapid benchmark shifts, cost advantages from Chinese labs, and unresolved questions around leaderboard criteria like style control, with no single lab holding a decisive edge as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMoonshot 43.1%
Google 40%
Z.ai 8.6%
Meta 4.6%
$58,438 Vol.
$58,438 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Moonshot
47%
40%
Z.ai
8%
Meta
5%
Alibaba
2%
OpenAI
2%
Anthropic
1%
Baidu
1%
Microsoft
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Moonshot 43.1%
Google 40%
Z.ai 8.6%
Meta 4.6%
$58,438 Vol.
$58,438 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Moonshot
$5,029 Vol.
47%
$12,627 Vol.
40%
Z.ai
$1,675 Vol.
8%
Meta
$12,518 Vol.
5%
Alibaba
$11,486 Vol.
2%
OpenAI
$1,781 Vol.
2%
Anthropic
$1,651 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$1,157 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$1,367 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$1,109 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$851 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$774 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$887 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$474 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$830 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,415 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$572 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$589 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$557 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$565 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$527 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI's July launch of the large open-source Kimi K3 model, which topped certain independent benchmarks including Arena.ai evaluations ahead of some U.S. frontier systems, has elevated its implied probability near 46% for the #3 AI lab slot by end of August. Google maintains close contention at 39.5% through ongoing Gemini updates and enterprise positioning, while Z.ai and Meta trail at single-digit odds on GLM-5 and Llama momentum. The even split among leading outcomes reflects rapid benchmark shifts, cost advantages from Chinese labs, and unresolved questions around leaderboard criteria like style control, with no single lab holding a decisive edge as resolution nears.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 8:54 PM ET
Volume
$58,438End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:54 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI's July launch of the large open-source Kimi K3 model, which topped certain independent benchmarks including Arena.ai evaluations ahead of some U.S. frontier systems, has elevated its implied probability near 46% for the #3 AI lab slot by end of August. Google maintains close contention at 39.5% through ongoing Gemini updates and enterprise positioning, while Z.ai and Meta trail at single-digit odds on GLM-5 and Llama momentum. The even split among leading outcomes reflects rapid benchmark shifts, cost advantages from Chinese labs, and unresolved questions around leaderboard criteria like style control, with no single lab holding a decisive edge as resolution nears.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$58,438End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:54 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot AI's July launch of the large open-source Kimi K3 model, which topped certain independent benchmarks including Arena.ai evaluations ahead of some U.S. frontier systems, has elevated its implied probability near 46% for the #3 AI lab slot by end of August. Google maintains close contention at 39.5% through ongoing Gemini updates and enterprise positioning, while Z.ai and Meta trail at single-digit odds on GLM-5 and Llama momentum. The even split among leading outcomes reflects rapid benchmark shifts, cost advantages from Chinese labs, and unresolved questions around leaderboard criteria like style control, with no single lab holding a decisive edge as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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