Meta’s commanding 92.5% implied probability for second place on the arena.ai text leaderboard (style control filter) by August 31 stems from its rapid July–August 2026 Muse Spark releases, including Muse Spark 1.2 and the open-weight Muse Glimmer 30B, which delivered strong agentic image generation, precise stylistic editing, prompt adherence, and multimodal performance that lifted Meta Superintelligence Labs ahead of rivals. Traders see little time for meaningful shifts with resolution days away, and competitors such as Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 Max, Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash updates, or Moonshot’s Kimi K3 have not produced comparable leaderboard gains in the style-control category. A late surprise release or benchmark surge from another lab could still alter positioning, but current trajectory and limited remaining window support the heavy consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMeta 93%
Alibaba 3.1%
Google 3.0%
Moonshot 1.7%
$90,893 Vol.
$90,893 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Meta
93%
Alibaba
3%
3%
Moonshot
2%
Anthropic
1%
Z.ai
1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Meta 93%
Alibaba 3.1%
Google 3.0%
Moonshot 1.7%
$90,893 Vol.
$90,893 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Meta
$24,024 Vol.
93%
Alibaba
$7,507 Vol.
3%
$16,931 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$3,865 Vol.
2%
Anthropic
$3,847 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$3,333 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$3,151 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$3,219 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$3,074 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$3,140 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$3,224 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$4,439 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$3,143 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$3,210 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,116 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$657 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$593 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$570 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$586 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$716 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$549 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta’s commanding 92.5% implied probability for second place on the arena.ai text leaderboard (style control filter) by August 31 stems from its rapid July–August 2026 Muse Spark releases, including Muse Spark 1.2 and the open-weight Muse Glimmer 30B, which delivered strong agentic image generation, precise stylistic editing, prompt adherence, and multimodal performance that lifted Meta Superintelligence Labs ahead of rivals. Traders see little time for meaningful shifts with resolution days away, and competitors such as Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 Max, Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash updates, or Moonshot’s Kimi K3 have not produced comparable leaderboard gains in the style-control category. A late surprise release or benchmark surge from another lab could still alter positioning, but current trajectory and limited remaining window support the heavy consensus.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 8:54 PM ET
Volume
$90,893End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:54 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta’s commanding 92.5% implied probability for second place on the arena.ai text leaderboard (style control filter) by August 31 stems from its rapid July–August 2026 Muse Spark releases, including Muse Spark 1.2 and the open-weight Muse Glimmer 30B, which delivered strong agentic image generation, precise stylistic editing, prompt adherence, and multimodal performance that lifted Meta Superintelligence Labs ahead of rivals. Traders see little time for meaningful shifts with resolution days away, and competitors such as Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 Max, Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash updates, or Moonshot’s Kimi K3 have not produced comparable leaderboard gains in the style-control category. A late surprise release or benchmark surge from another lab could still alter positioning, but current trajectory and limited remaining window support the heavy consensus.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$90,893End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:54 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Meta’s commanding 92.5% implied probability for second place on the arena.ai text leaderboard (style control filter) by August 31 stems from its rapid July–August 2026 Muse Spark releases, including Muse Spark 1.2 and the open-weight Muse Glimmer 30B, which delivered strong agentic image generation, precise stylistic editing, prompt adherence, and multimodal performance that lifted Meta Superintelligence Labs ahead of rivals. Traders see little time for meaningful shifts with resolution days away, and competitors such as Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 Max, Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash updates, or Moonshot’s Kimi K3 have not produced comparable leaderboard gains in the style-control category. A late surprise release or benchmark surge from another lab could still alter positioning, but current trajectory and limited remaining window support the heavy consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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