Trader consensus on the 90.5% implied probability that the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline will remain unchanged through December 31, 2026, stems primarily from the stability of the underlying remaining carbon budget estimate, anchored to IPCC AR6 and Mercator Research Institute calculations, combined with persistent global CO₂ emissions near 40 Gt per year. Recent 2025–2026 observational data from the Global Carbon Project show no abrupt acceleration or mitigation surge sufficient to trigger a recalculation large enough to shift the published deadline by more than 30 days. The clock relies on periodic updates tied to authoritative reports rather than short-term fluctuations, and no major new IPCC assessment or budget revision is scheduled before late 2026. While updated model runs or unexpected emissions shifts could still alter the trajectory, current evidence supports the strong market view of continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
10% chance
$12,981 Vol.
$12,981 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
10% chance
$12,981 Vol.
$12,981 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Trader consensus on the 90.5% implied probability that the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline will remain unchanged through December 31, 2026, stems primarily from the stability of the underlying remaining carbon budget estimate, anchored to IPCC AR6 and Mercator Research Institute calculations, combined with persistent global CO₂ emissions near 40 Gt per year. Recent 2025–2026 observational data from the Global Carbon Project show no abrupt acceleration or mitigation surge sufficient to trigger a recalculation large enough to shift the published deadline by more than 30 days. The clock relies on periodic updates tied to authoritative reports rather than short-term fluctuations, and no major new IPCC assessment or budget revision is scheduled before late 2026. While updated model runs or unexpected emissions shifts could still alter the trajectory, current evidence supports the strong market view of continuity.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
Volume
$12,981End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETResolution Source
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Trader consensus on the 90.5% implied probability that the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline will remain unchanged through December 31, 2026, stems primarily from the stability of the underlying remaining carbon budget estimate, anchored to IPCC AR6 and Mercator Research Institute calculations, combined with persistent global CO₂ emissions near 40 Gt per year. Recent 2025–2026 observational data from the Global Carbon Project show no abrupt acceleration or mitigation surge sufficient to trigger a recalculation large enough to shift the published deadline by more than 30 days. The clock relies on periodic updates tied to authoritative reports rather than short-term fluctuations, and no major new IPCC assessment or budget revision is scheduled before late 2026. While updated model runs or unexpected emissions shifts could still alter the trajectory, current evidence supports the strong market view of continuity.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$12,981End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETResolution Source
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on the 90.5% implied probability that the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline will remain unchanged through December 31, 2026, stems primarily from the stability of the underlying remaining carbon budget estimate, anchored to IPCC AR6 and Mercator Research Institute calculations, combined with persistent global CO₂ emissions near 40 Gt per year. Recent 2025–2026 observational data from the Global Carbon Project show no abrupt acceleration or mitigation surge sufficient to trigger a recalculation large enough to shift the published deadline by more than 30 days. The clock relies on periodic updates tied to authoritative reports rather than short-term fluctuations, and no major new IPCC assessment or budget revision is scheduled before late 2026. While updated model runs or unexpected emissions shifts could still alter the trajectory, current evidence supports the strong market view of continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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