**AfD leads recent polls for the September 6, 2026, Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election at 41–43 percent (Pollytix, INSA, Infratest dimap), well ahead of the CDU at 22–25 percent, with the Left at 13 percent and smaller parties clustered near the 5 percent threshold.** This positions the AfD as the likely largest party and potential winner, but the vote-share level typically falls short of the roughly 45 percent-plus needed for an outright seat majority in the 83-seat parliament, especially if the SPD, Greens, FDP, or BSW clear the threshold and fragment the remaining seats. Aggregators assign the AfD only around a 30 percent modeled probability of an absolute majority. Traders price the “No” outcome at 68.5 percent because current polling trajectories, threshold dynamics, and the absence of late momentum sufficient to push AfD support materially higher make an absolute majority the less probable outcome on election night.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
32% chance
$399,333 Vol.
$399,333 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
32% chance
$399,333 Vol.
$399,333 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).**AfD leads recent polls for the September 6, 2026, Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election at 41–43 percent (Pollytix, INSA, Infratest dimap), well ahead of the CDU at 22–25 percent, with the Left at 13 percent and smaller parties clustered near the 5 percent threshold.** This positions the AfD as the likely largest party and potential winner, but the vote-share level typically falls short of the roughly 45 percent-plus needed for an outright seat majority in the 83-seat parliament, especially if the SPD, Greens, FDP, or BSW clear the threshold and fragment the remaining seats. Aggregators assign the AfD only around a 30 percent modeled probability of an absolute majority. Traders price the “No” outcome at 68.5 percent because current polling trajectories, threshold dynamics, and the absence of late momentum sufficient to push AfD support materially higher make an absolute majority the less probable outcome on election night.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 7:48 PM ET
Volume
$399,333End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).**AfD leads recent polls for the September 6, 2026, Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election at 41–43 percent (Pollytix, INSA, Infratest dimap), well ahead of the CDU at 22–25 percent, with the Left at 13 percent and smaller parties clustered near the 5 percent threshold.** This positions the AfD as the likely largest party and potential winner, but the vote-share level typically falls short of the roughly 45 percent-plus needed for an outright seat majority in the 83-seat parliament, especially if the SPD, Greens, FDP, or BSW clear the threshold and fragment the remaining seats. Aggregators assign the AfD only around a 30 percent modeled probability of an absolute majority. Traders price the “No” outcome at 68.5 percent because current polling trajectories, threshold dynamics, and the absence of late momentum sufficient to push AfD support materially higher make an absolute majority the less probable outcome on election night.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Volume
$399,333End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**AfD leads recent polls for the September 6, 2026, Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election at 41–43 percent (Pollytix, INSA, Infratest dimap), well ahead of the CDU at 22–25 percent, with the Left at 13 percent and smaller parties clustered near the 5 percent threshold.** This positions the AfD as the likely largest party and potential winner, but the vote-share level typically falls short of the roughly 45 percent-plus needed for an outright seat majority in the 83-seat parliament, especially if the SPD, Greens, FDP, or BSW clear the threshold and fragment the remaining seats. Aggregators assign the AfD only around a 30 percent modeled probability of an absolute majority. Traders price the “No” outcome at 68.5 percent because current polling trajectories, threshold dynamics, and the absence of late momentum sufficient to push AfD support materially higher make an absolute majority the less probable outcome on election night.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions