Anthropic's Claude lineup, particularly the recently released Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 models, drives the 68.5% market-implied odds through consistent top rankings on independent benchmarks like BenchAlign, SWE-bench Verified, and agentic indices as of late August 2026. These large language models excel in coding, reasoning, and tool-use tasks with 1M-token context windows, outpacing competitors amid Google's repeated flagship delays on Gemini 3.x Pro variants and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family trailing in overall capability-per-dollar metrics despite math strengths. xAI's Grok 4.6 and Chinese entrants like Kimi K3 or GLM-5.3 show value gains but lack the frontier lead. Sustained releases, enterprise adoption, and benchmark dominance position Anthropic as the trader consensus favorite heading into year-end evaluations, though product timelines and new evaluations remain key variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 69%
OpenAI 12%
Google 9%
xAI 7.5%
$836,373 Vol.
$836,373 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Anthropic
69%
OpenAI
12%
9%
xAI
7%
Meta
3%
Moonshot
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 69%
OpenAI 12%
Google 9%
xAI 7.5%
$836,373 Vol.
$836,373 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Anthropic
$88,285 Vol.
69%
OpenAI
$69,348 Vol.
12%
$43,157 Vol.
9%
xAI
$69,095 Vol.
7%
Meta
$53,873 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$67,421 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$65,378 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$56,015 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$48,920 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$60,615 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$39,183 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$49,104 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$43,563 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$40,329 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$42,086 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude lineup, particularly the recently released Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 models, drives the 68.5% market-implied odds through consistent top rankings on independent benchmarks like BenchAlign, SWE-bench Verified, and agentic indices as of late August 2026. These large language models excel in coding, reasoning, and tool-use tasks with 1M-token context windows, outpacing competitors amid Google's repeated flagship delays on Gemini 3.x Pro variants and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family trailing in overall capability-per-dollar metrics despite math strengths. xAI's Grok 4.6 and Chinese entrants like Kimi K3 or GLM-5.3 show value gains but lack the frontier lead. Sustained releases, enterprise adoption, and benchmark dominance position Anthropic as the trader consensus favorite heading into year-end evaluations, though product timelines and new evaluations remain key variables.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Volume
$836,373End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude lineup, particularly the recently released Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 models, drives the 68.5% market-implied odds through consistent top rankings on independent benchmarks like BenchAlign, SWE-bench Verified, and agentic indices as of late August 2026. These large language models excel in coding, reasoning, and tool-use tasks with 1M-token context windows, outpacing competitors amid Google's repeated flagship delays on Gemini 3.x Pro variants and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family trailing in overall capability-per-dollar metrics despite math strengths. xAI's Grok 4.6 and Chinese entrants like Kimi K3 or GLM-5.3 show value gains but lack the frontier lead. Sustained releases, enterprise adoption, and benchmark dominance position Anthropic as the trader consensus favorite heading into year-end evaluations, though product timelines and new evaluations remain key variables.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$836,373End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude lineup, particularly the recently released Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 models, drives the 68.5% market-implied odds through consistent top rankings on independent benchmarks like BenchAlign, SWE-bench Verified, and agentic indices as of late August 2026. These large language models excel in coding, reasoning, and tool-use tasks with 1M-token context windows, outpacing competitors amid Google's repeated flagship delays on Gemini 3.x Pro variants and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family trailing in overall capability-per-dollar metrics despite math strengths. xAI's Grok 4.6 and Chinese entrants like Kimi K3 or GLM-5.3 show value gains but lack the frontier lead. Sustained releases, enterprise adoption, and benchmark dominance position Anthropic as the trader consensus favorite heading into year-end evaluations, though product timelines and new evaluations remain key variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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