Google’s repeated delays for Gemini 3.5 Pro, the anticipated next flagship Pro model after 3.1 Pro’s February preview release, drive the market’s 44.5% implied probability on no launch by November 1. Announced at Google I/O in May with an initial June target that slipped to July, the model remains in partner testing as of late July with only a vague “coming soon” update, while lighter variants like Gemini 3.6 Flash reached general availability on July 21 and training on Gemini 4 has already begun. This pattern of cautious iteration amid competition from OpenAI and Anthropic, combined with no confirmed near-term milestones, keeps near-term weekly windows under 5% and favors extended timelines in trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo release by November 1 45%
September 21–September 27 6.9%
September 28–October 4 5.1%
October 5–October 11 5%
$14,015 Vol.
$14,015 Vol.
Sep 13, 2026
Prior to August 31
4%
August 31–September 6
4%
September 7–September 13
17%
September 14–September 20
2%
September 21–September 27
7%
September 28–October 4
5%
October 5–October 11
5%
October 12–October 18
4%
October 19–October 25
1%
October 26–November 1
1%
No release by November 1
45%
No release by November 1 45%
September 21–September 27 6.9%
September 28–October 4 5.1%
October 5–October 11 5%
$14,015 Vol.
$14,015 Vol.
Sep 13, 2026
Prior to August 31
$347 Vol.
4%
August 31–September 6
$277 Vol.
4%
September 7–September 13
$921 Vol.
17%
September 14–September 20
$292 Vol.
2%
September 21–September 27
$371 Vol.
7%
September 28–October 4
$420 Vol.
5%
October 5–October 11
$300 Vol.
5%
October 12–October 18
$317 Vol.
4%
October 19–October 25
$276 Vol.
1%
October 26–November 1
$227 Vol.
1%
No release by November 1
$10,267 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s repeated delays for Gemini 3.5 Pro, the anticipated next flagship Pro model after 3.1 Pro’s February preview release, drive the market’s 44.5% implied probability on no launch by November 1. Announced at Google I/O in May with an initial June target that slipped to July, the model remains in partner testing as of late July with only a vague “coming soon” update, while lighter variants like Gemini 3.6 Flash reached general availability on July 21 and training on Gemini 4 has already begun. This pattern of cautious iteration amid competition from OpenAI and Anthropic, combined with no confirmed near-term milestones, keeps near-term weekly windows under 5% and favors extended timelines in trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
Volume
$14,015End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s repeated delays for Gemini 3.5 Pro, the anticipated next flagship Pro model after 3.1 Pro’s February preview release, drive the market’s 44.5% implied probability on no launch by November 1. Announced at Google I/O in May with an initial June target that slipped to July, the model remains in partner testing as of late July with only a vague “coming soon” update, while lighter variants like Gemini 3.6 Flash reached general availability on July 21 and training on Gemini 4 has already begun. This pattern of cautious iteration amid competition from OpenAI and Anthropic, combined with no confirmed near-term milestones, keeps near-term weekly windows under 5% and favors extended timelines in trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$14,015End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google’s repeated delays for Gemini 3.5 Pro, the anticipated next flagship Pro model after 3.1 Pro’s February preview release, drive the market’s 44.5% implied probability on no launch by November 1. Announced at Google I/O in May with an initial June target that slipped to July, the model remains in partner testing as of late July with only a vague “coming soon” update, while lighter variants like Gemini 3.6 Flash reached general availability on July 21 and training on Gemini 4 has already begun. This pattern of cautious iteration amid competition from OpenAI and Anthropic, combined with no confirmed near-term milestones, keeps near-term weekly windows under 5% and favors extended timelines in trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions