Google’s repeated delays to Gemini 3.5 Pro—originally slated for June after May I/O and still stuck in partner testing without a firm public release date as of late August—drive the market’s leading 44.5% implied probability of no Pro launch by November 1. Persistent shortfalls in coding benchmarks and agentic performance have prompted Google to prioritize frequent Flash iterations, such as the August 13 release of 3.7 Flash, while confirming pre-training has begun on the larger Gemini 4 frontier model. Traders see low single-digit odds for any specific September or October window because the company has offered no timeline commitments and continues listing 3.5 Pro as “coming soon” on official pages. No major developer events or earnings catalysts are imminent that would likely shift these probabilities quickly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo release by November 1 45%
September 7–September 13 6.1%
September 21–September 27 6.0%
October 12–October 18 6%
$14,401 Vol.
$14,401 Vol.
Sep 27, 2026
Prior to August 31
3%
August 31–September 6
4%
September 7–September 13
6%
September 14–September 20
2%
September 21–September 27
6%
September 28–October 4
5%
October 5–October 11
5%
October 12–October 18
6%
October 19–October 25
1%
October 26–November 1
1%
No release by November 1
45%
No release by November 1 45%
September 7–September 13 6.1%
September 21–September 27 6.0%
October 12–October 18 6%
$14,401 Vol.
$14,401 Vol.
Sep 27, 2026
Prior to August 31
$347 Vol.
3%
August 31–September 6
$277 Vol.
4%
September 7–September 13
$921 Vol.
6%
September 14–September 20
$292 Vol.
2%
September 21–September 27
$371 Vol.
6%
September 28–October 4
$420 Vol.
5%
October 5–October 11
$300 Vol.
5%
October 12–October 18
$317 Vol.
6%
October 19–October 25
$276 Vol.
1%
October 26–November 1
$227 Vol.
1%
No release by November 1
$10,652 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s repeated delays to Gemini 3.5 Pro—originally slated for June after May I/O and still stuck in partner testing without a firm public release date as of late August—drive the market’s leading 44.5% implied probability of no Pro launch by November 1. Persistent shortfalls in coding benchmarks and agentic performance have prompted Google to prioritize frequent Flash iterations, such as the August 13 release of 3.7 Flash, while confirming pre-training has begun on the larger Gemini 4 frontier model. Traders see low single-digit odds for any specific September or October window because the company has offered no timeline commitments and continues listing 3.5 Pro as “coming soon” on official pages. No major developer events or earnings catalysts are imminent that would likely shift these probabilities quickly.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
Volume
$14,401End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s repeated delays to Gemini 3.5 Pro—originally slated for June after May I/O and still stuck in partner testing without a firm public release date as of late August—drive the market’s leading 44.5% implied probability of no Pro launch by November 1. Persistent shortfalls in coding benchmarks and agentic performance have prompted Google to prioritize frequent Flash iterations, such as the August 13 release of 3.7 Flash, while confirming pre-training has begun on the larger Gemini 4 frontier model. Traders see low single-digit odds for any specific September or October window because the company has offered no timeline commitments and continues listing 3.5 Pro as “coming soon” on official pages. No major developer events or earnings catalysts are imminent that would likely shift these probabilities quickly.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$14,401End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google’s repeated delays to Gemini 3.5 Pro—originally slated for June after May I/O and still stuck in partner testing without a firm public release date as of late August—drive the market’s leading 44.5% implied probability of no Pro launch by November 1. Persistent shortfalls in coding benchmarks and agentic performance have prompted Google to prioritize frequent Flash iterations, such as the August 13 release of 3.7 Flash, while confirming pre-training has begun on the larger Gemini 4 frontier model. Traders see low single-digit odds for any specific September or October window because the company has offered no timeline commitments and continues listing 3.5 Pro as “coming soon” on official pages. No major developer events or earnings catalysts are imminent that would likely shift these probabilities quickly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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