The Trump administration has intensified pressure on Cuba’s energy sector through Executive Orders 14380 (January 2026) and 14404 (May 2026), which authorized tariffs on third-country oil suppliers and secondary sanctions on foreign entities operating in Cuba’s energy, finance, and related sectors. This followed the cutoff of Venezuelan supplies after Maduro’s capture and included the June 2026 SDN designation of state oil company CUPET plus subsequent listings of importers, exploration firms, and GAESA-linked entities. Secretary Rubio has described ongoing designations as a rolling effort to close revenue channels, with the August 2026 renewal of Trading With the Enemy Act authorities maintaining the legal foundation for restrictions. Cuba’s June 2026 economic liberalization measures have not altered this trajectory, as U.S. actions continue to target state-controlled oil trade and associated evasion networks amid the island’s fuel shortages. These developments shape trader consensus on the low near-term likelihood of sanction relief announcements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$46,696 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Trump administration has intensified pressure on Cuba’s energy sector through Executive Orders 14380 (January 2026) and 14404 (May 2026), which authorized tariffs on third-country oil suppliers and secondary sanctions on foreign entities operating in Cuba’s energy, finance, and related sectors. This followed the cutoff of Venezuelan supplies after Maduro’s capture and included the June 2026 SDN designation of state oil company CUPET plus subsequent listings of importers, exploration firms, and GAESA-linked entities. Secretary Rubio has described ongoing designations as a rolling effort to close revenue channels, with the August 2026 renewal of Trading With the Enemy Act authorities maintaining the legal foundation for restrictions. Cuba’s June 2026 economic liberalization measures have not altered this trajectory, as U.S. actions continue to target state-controlled oil trade and associated evasion networks amid the island’s fuel shortages. These developments shape trader consensus on the low near-term likelihood of sanction relief announcements.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 22, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$46,696End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Trump administration has intensified pressure on Cuba’s energy sector through Executive Orders 14380 (January 2026) and 14404 (May 2026), which authorized tariffs on third-country oil suppliers and secondary sanctions on foreign entities operating in Cuba’s energy, finance, and related sectors. This followed the cutoff of Venezuelan supplies after Maduro’s capture and included the June 2026 SDN designation of state oil company CUPET plus subsequent listings of importers, exploration firms, and GAESA-linked entities. Secretary Rubio has described ongoing designations as a rolling effort to close revenue channels, with the August 2026 renewal of Trading With the Enemy Act authorities maintaining the legal foundation for restrictions. Cuba’s June 2026 economic liberalization measures have not altered this trajectory, as U.S. actions continue to target state-controlled oil trade and associated evasion networks amid the island’s fuel shortages. These developments shape trader consensus on the low near-term likelihood of sanction relief announcements.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$46,696End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration has intensified pressure on Cuba’s energy sector through Executive Orders 14380 (January 2026) and 14404 (May 2026), which authorized tariffs on third-country oil suppliers and secondary sanctions on foreign entities operating in Cuba’s energy, finance, and related sectors. This followed the cutoff of Venezuelan supplies after Maduro’s capture and included the June 2026 SDN designation of state oil company CUPET plus subsequent listings of importers, exploration firms, and GAESA-linked entities. Secretary Rubio has described ongoing designations as a rolling effort to close revenue channels, with the August 2026 renewal of Trading With the Enemy Act authorities maintaining the legal foundation for restrictions. Cuba’s June 2026 economic liberalization measures have not altered this trajectory, as U.S. actions continue to target state-controlled oil trade and associated evasion networks amid the island’s fuel shortages. These developments shape trader consensus on the low near-term likelihood of sanction relief announcements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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