Iran’s efforts to enforce new transit rules and fees in the Strait of Hormuz after the June 17 U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding expired on August 17 have coincided with multiple reported strikes and seizures on commercial vessels. Iranian authorities blacklisted 45 tankers on August 24 for alleged violations, threatening detention or cargo confiscation, while incidents include a fatal projectile strike on the bulk carrier MINOAN DIGNITY and the seizure of the tanker AMARA near Qeshm Island. Parallel Houthi ballistic missile activity against Saudi-linked shipping in the Red Sea has added pressure on routes. Diplomatic talks between Iran and Oman on a joint navigation corridor opened on August 25 amid U.S. sanctions and redirected traffic, leaving trader assessments of further successful targeting sensitive to any confirmed new attacks or enforcement actions before scheduled resolution dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$190,809 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
August 17
55%
August 18
43%
August 24
37%
August 25
6%
August 26
6%
August 27
30%
August 28
26%
August 29
18%
August 30
20%
August 31
19%
$190,809 Vol.
August 17
$6,180 Vol.
55%
August 18
$2,542 Vol.
43%
August 24
$11,261 Vol.
37%
August 25
$1,199 Vol.
6%
August 26
$1,341 Vol.
6%
August 27
$1,991 Vol.
30%
August 28
$1,563 Vol.
26%
August 29
$3,035 Vol.
18%
August 30
$860 Vol.
20%
August 31
$3,815 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran’s efforts to enforce new transit rules and fees in the Strait of Hormuz after the June 17 U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding expired on August 17 have coincided with multiple reported strikes and seizures on commercial vessels. Iranian authorities blacklisted 45 tankers on August 24 for alleged violations, threatening detention or cargo confiscation, while incidents include a fatal projectile strike on the bulk carrier MINOAN DIGNITY and the seizure of the tanker AMARA near Qeshm Island. Parallel Houthi ballistic missile activity against Saudi-linked shipping in the Red Sea has added pressure on routes. Diplomatic talks between Iran and Oman on a joint navigation corridor opened on August 25 amid U.S. sanctions and redirected traffic, leaving trader assessments of further successful targeting sensitive to any confirmed new attacks or enforcement actions before scheduled resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ET
Volume
$190,809End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran’s efforts to enforce new transit rules and fees in the Strait of Hormuz after the June 17 U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding expired on August 17 have coincided with multiple reported strikes and seizures on commercial vessels. Iranian authorities blacklisted 45 tankers on August 24 for alleged violations, threatening detention or cargo confiscation, while incidents include a fatal projectile strike on the bulk carrier MINOAN DIGNITY and the seizure of the tanker AMARA near Qeshm Island. Parallel Houthi ballistic missile activity against Saudi-linked shipping in the Red Sea has added pressure on routes. Diplomatic talks between Iran and Oman on a joint navigation corridor opened on August 25 amid U.S. sanctions and redirected traffic, leaving trader assessments of further successful targeting sensitive to any confirmed new attacks or enforcement actions before scheduled resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$190,809End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s efforts to enforce new transit rules and fees in the Strait of Hormuz after the June 17 U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding expired on August 17 have coincided with multiple reported strikes and seizures on commercial vessels. Iranian authorities blacklisted 45 tankers on August 24 for alleged violations, threatening detention or cargo confiscation, while incidents include a fatal projectile strike on the bulk carrier MINOAN DIGNITY and the seizure of the tanker AMARA near Qeshm Island. Parallel Houthi ballistic missile activity against Saudi-linked shipping in the Red Sea has added pressure on routes. Diplomatic talks between Iran and Oman on a joint navigation corridor opened on August 25 amid U.S. sanctions and redirected traffic, leaving trader assessments of further successful targeting sensitive to any confirmed new attacks or enforcement actions before scheduled resolution dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions