**Persistent geopolitical tensions and security risks from the Iran-U.S. conflict have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely depressed during the week of August 24, driving strong trader consensus toward the 25-49 ship range.** Ongoing blockades, IRGC enforcement of northern routes, mine threats, and elevated war-risk premiums (around 40 times normal) continue to deter most operators, with major carriers like MSC and Maersk rerouting and many vessels going AIS-dark. Recent data show daily transits in single digits to low teens—such as 3 vessels on August 23, zero tankers on August 25, and seven on August 27—consistent with weekly totals well below 50 and roughly 4% of pre-crisis norms of 85–138 per day. A minor uptick in tankers and gas carriers provided limited support but failed to shift the broader outlook amid renewed IRGC statements asserting control on August 29 and lingering attack risks. Market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment of these sustained constraints over near-term diplomatic or clearance developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?
25-49 90%
<25 8%
50-74 3.9%
100+ <1%
$12,804 Vol.
$12,804 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<25
8%
25-49
90%
50-74
4%
75-99
1%
100+
1%
25-49 90%
<25 8%
50-74 3.9%
100+ <1%
$12,804 Vol.
$12,804 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<25
$5,111 Vol.
8%
25-49
$4,108 Vol.
90%
50-74
$1,215 Vol.
4%
75-99
$956 Vol.
1%
100+
$1,414 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Persistent geopolitical tensions and security risks from the Iran-U.S. conflict have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely depressed during the week of August 24, driving strong trader consensus toward the 25-49 ship range.**
Ongoing blockades, IRGC enforcement of northern routes, mine threats, and elevated war-risk premiums (around 40 times normal) continue to deter most operators, with major carriers like MSC and Maersk rerouting and many vessels going AIS-dark. Recent data show daily transits in single digits to low teens—such as 3 vessels on August 23, zero tankers on August 25, and seven on August 27—consistent with weekly totals well below 50 and roughly 4% of pre-crisis norms of 85–138 per day. A minor uptick in tankers and gas carriers provided limited support but failed to shift the broader outlook amid renewed IRGC statements asserting control on August 29 and lingering attack risks. Market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment of these sustained constraints over near-term diplomatic or clearance developments.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$12,804End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Persistent geopolitical tensions and security risks from the Iran-U.S. conflict have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely depressed during the week of August 24, driving strong trader consensus toward the 25-49 ship range.**
Ongoing blockades, IRGC enforcement of northern routes, mine threats, and elevated war-risk premiums (around 40 times normal) continue to deter most operators, with major carriers like MSC and Maersk rerouting and many vessels going AIS-dark. Recent data show daily transits in single digits to low teens—such as 3 vessels on August 23, zero tankers on August 25, and seven on August 27—consistent with weekly totals well below 50 and roughly 4% of pre-crisis norms of 85–138 per day. A minor uptick in tankers and gas carriers provided limited support but failed to shift the broader outlook amid renewed IRGC statements asserting control on August 29 and lingering attack risks. Market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment of these sustained constraints over near-term diplomatic or clearance developments.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$12,804End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent geopolitical tensions and security risks from the Iran-U.S. conflict have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely depressed during the week of August 24, driving strong trader consensus toward the 25-49 ship range.** Ongoing blockades, IRGC enforcement of northern routes, mine threats, and elevated war-risk premiums (around 40 times normal) continue to deter most operators, with major carriers like MSC and Maersk rerouting and many vessels going AIS-dark. Recent data show daily transits in single digits to low teens—such as 3 vessels on August 23, zero tankers on August 25, and seven on August 27—consistent with weekly totals well below 50 and roughly 4% of pre-crisis norms of 85–138 per day. A minor uptick in tankers and gas carriers provided limited support but failed to shift the broader outlook amid renewed IRGC statements asserting control on August 29 and lingering attack risks. Market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment of these sustained constraints over near-term diplomatic or clearance developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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