**Recent Houthi attacks and blockade declarations against Saudi-linked vessels have driven near-certain market-implied odds of successful targeting through late August 2026.** Since late July, the Iran-backed group has claimed multiple missile and drone strikes on oil tankers and cargo ships transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and southern Red Sea, including confirmed damage to vessels such as the NCC Ghazal and Amzan, plus a deadly August 11 strike on the Tihamah that killed crew members. These actions, tied to Yemen’s civil conflict and broader U.S.-Iran hostilities, have prompted shipping diversions and reduced traffic volumes well below pre-2023 levels. War-risk insurance premiums have more than doubled in recent weeks, reaching around 1% of hull value for southern Red Sea transits—translating to roughly $1 million per voyage on a $100 million vessel—compared with prior levels near 0.3–0.4%. This repricing reflects aggregated trader assessments of persistent kinetic risk and directly elevates the economic cost of continued Red Sea routing. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing Saudi-Houthi tensions, potential additional strikes before the August 31 resolution window, and any shifts in naval escorts or regional ceasefires that could alter attack frequency. Markets price these probabilities based on real capital at risk, with strong consensus around recent escalation trends rather than guarantees of future outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHouthis successfully target shipping on...?
Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
$262,810 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
August 17
90%
August 25
12%
August 26
2%
August 27
3%
August 28
9%
August 29
15%
August 30
9%
August 31
12%
$262,810 Vol.
August 17
$9,161 Vol.
90%
August 25
$3,509 Vol.
12%
August 26
$1,514 Vol.
2%
August 27
$2,333 Vol.
3%
August 28
$2,607 Vol.
9%
August 29
$3,144 Vol.
15%
August 30
$2,344 Vol.
9%
August 31
$3,807 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.**Recent Houthi attacks and blockade declarations against Saudi-linked vessels have driven near-certain market-implied odds of successful targeting through late August 2026.**
Since late July, the Iran-backed group has claimed multiple missile and drone strikes on oil tankers and cargo ships transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and southern Red Sea, including confirmed damage to vessels such as the NCC Ghazal and Amzan, plus a deadly August 11 strike on the Tihamah that killed crew members. These actions, tied to Yemen’s civil conflict and broader U.S.-Iran hostilities, have prompted shipping diversions and reduced traffic volumes well below pre-2023 levels.
War-risk insurance premiums have more than doubled in recent weeks, reaching around 1% of hull value for southern Red Sea transits—translating to roughly $1 million per voyage on a $100 million vessel—compared with prior levels near 0.3–0.4%. This repricing reflects aggregated trader assessments of persistent kinetic risk and directly elevates the economic cost of continued Red Sea routing.
Key near-term catalysts include ongoing Saudi-Houthi tensions, potential additional strikes before the August 31 resolution window, and any shifts in naval escorts or regional ceasefires that could alter attack frequency. Markets price these probabilities based on real capital at risk, with strong consensus around recent escalation trends rather than guarantees of future outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Volume
$262,810End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.**Recent Houthi attacks and blockade declarations against Saudi-linked vessels have driven near-certain market-implied odds of successful targeting through late August 2026.**
Since late July, the Iran-backed group has claimed multiple missile and drone strikes on oil tankers and cargo ships transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and southern Red Sea, including confirmed damage to vessels such as the NCC Ghazal and Amzan, plus a deadly August 11 strike on the Tihamah that killed crew members. These actions, tied to Yemen’s civil conflict and broader U.S.-Iran hostilities, have prompted shipping diversions and reduced traffic volumes well below pre-2023 levels.
War-risk insurance premiums have more than doubled in recent weeks, reaching around 1% of hull value for southern Red Sea transits—translating to roughly $1 million per voyage on a $100 million vessel—compared with prior levels near 0.3–0.4%. This repricing reflects aggregated trader assessments of persistent kinetic risk and directly elevates the economic cost of continued Red Sea routing.
Key near-term catalysts include ongoing Saudi-Houthi tensions, potential additional strikes before the August 31 resolution window, and any shifts in naval escorts or regional ceasefires that could alter attack frequency. Markets price these probabilities based on real capital at risk, with strong consensus around recent escalation trends rather than guarantees of future outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$262,810End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
**Recent Houthi attacks and blockade declarations against Saudi-linked vessels have driven near-certain market-implied odds of successful targeting through late August 2026.** Since late July, the Iran-backed group has claimed multiple missile and drone strikes on oil tankers and cargo ships transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and southern Red Sea, including confirmed damage to vessels such as the NCC Ghazal and Amzan, plus a deadly August 11 strike on the Tihamah that killed crew members. These actions, tied to Yemen’s civil conflict and broader U.S.-Iran hostilities, have prompted shipping diversions and reduced traffic volumes well below pre-2023 levels. War-risk insurance premiums have more than doubled in recent weeks, reaching around 1% of hull value for southern Red Sea transits—translating to roughly $1 million per voyage on a $100 million vessel—compared with prior levels near 0.3–0.4%. This repricing reflects aggregated trader assessments of persistent kinetic risk and directly elevates the economic cost of continued Red Sea routing. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing Saudi-Houthi tensions, potential additional strikes before the August 31 resolution window, and any shifts in naval escorts or regional ceasefires that could alter attack frequency. Markets price these probabilities based on real capital at risk, with strong consensus around recent escalation trends rather than guarantees of future outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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