**Current forecasts from major models and agencies place Paris's August 31 high temperature near or slightly above the long-term average of 23.8°C, with consensus centering on 23–24°C.** This tight clustering explains the market's leading probabilities (24°C at 40.5%, 23°C at 35.5%), as traders weigh subtle differences in expected maximums amid variable cloud cover, light westerly winds, and a modest chance of scattered showers or drizzle that could cap afternoon heating. Recent conditions show a cooling trend after mid-August warmth, with Aug 28–29 featuring overcast skies, light rain, and daytime highs around 21–23°C. Steering patterns favor Atlantic air advection, while model runs (including those referenced by Météo-France and European centers) indicate limited destabilization and modest insolation on the 31st. Any shift in cloud timing, wind strength, or frontal passage could tip the daily maximum between these two values, keeping implied odds closely matched until final observational data from Paris-area stations confirm the peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 31?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 31?
24°C 41%
23°C 36%
22°C 13%
25°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
4%
22°C
13%
23°C
36%
24°C
41%
25°C
11%
26°C
6%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 41%
23°C 36%
22°C 13%
25°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
19°C or below
$17 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$0 Vol.
1%
21°C
$0 Vol.
4%
22°C
$81 Vol.
13%
23°C
$17 Vol.
36%
24°C
$21 Vol.
41%
25°C
$0 Vol.
11%
26°C
$5 Vol.
6%
27°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from major models and agencies place Paris's August 31 high temperature near or slightly above the long-term average of 23.8°C, with consensus centering on 23–24°C.** This tight clustering explains the market's leading probabilities (24°C at 40.5%, 23°C at 35.5%), as traders weigh subtle differences in expected maximums amid variable cloud cover, light westerly winds, and a modest chance of scattered showers or drizzle that could cap afternoon heating.
Recent conditions show a cooling trend after mid-August warmth, with Aug 28–29 featuring overcast skies, light rain, and daytime highs around 21–23°C. Steering patterns favor Atlantic air advection, while model runs (including those referenced by Météo-France and European centers) indicate limited destabilization and modest insolation on the 31st. Any shift in cloud timing, wind strength, or frontal passage could tip the daily maximum between these two values, keeping implied odds closely matched until final observational data from Paris-area stations confirm the peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$141End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from major models and agencies place Paris's August 31 high temperature near or slightly above the long-term average of 23.8°C, with consensus centering on 23–24°C.** This tight clustering explains the market's leading probabilities (24°C at 40.5%, 23°C at 35.5%), as traders weigh subtle differences in expected maximums amid variable cloud cover, light westerly winds, and a modest chance of scattered showers or drizzle that could cap afternoon heating.
Recent conditions show a cooling trend after mid-August warmth, with Aug 28–29 featuring overcast skies, light rain, and daytime highs around 21–23°C. Steering patterns favor Atlantic air advection, while model runs (including those referenced by Météo-France and European centers) indicate limited destabilization and modest insolation on the 31st. Any shift in cloud timing, wind strength, or frontal passage could tip the daily maximum between these two values, keeping implied odds closely matched until final observational data from Paris-area stations confirm the peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$141End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from major models and agencies place Paris's August 31 high temperature near or slightly above the long-term average of 23.8°C, with consensus centering on 23–24°C.** This tight clustering explains the market's leading probabilities (24°C at 40.5%, 23°C at 35.5%), as traders weigh subtle differences in expected maximums amid variable cloud cover, light westerly winds, and a modest chance of scattered showers or drizzle that could cap afternoon heating. Recent conditions show a cooling trend after mid-August warmth, with Aug 28–29 featuring overcast skies, light rain, and daytime highs around 21–23°C. Steering patterns favor Atlantic air advection, while model runs (including those referenced by Météo-France and European centers) indicate limited destabilization and modest insolation on the 31st. Any shift in cloud timing, wind strength, or frontal passage could tip the daily maximum between these two values, keeping implied odds closely matched until final observational data from Paris-area stations confirm the peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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