OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol currently sits at 49.5% on Humanity’s Last Exam, trailing Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5 at 55.5% amid steady gains across frontier large language models since the benchmark’s 2025 debut. Traders assign an 86% implied probability to OpenAI models reaching at least 50% by year-end, reflecting expectations of continued scaling, reasoning improvements, and potential new releases that could close the gap with competitors. Key swing factors include OpenAI’s pace of iteration versus Anthropic and Google DeepMind, benchmark revisions under the HLE-Rolling process, and any demonstrated capability jumps on expert-level questions in math, science, and humanities. Resolution hinges on the highest verified OpenAI score posted through December 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$46,204 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
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$46,204 Vol.
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$7,934 Vol.
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$18,130 Vol.
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$15,149 Vol.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol currently sits at 49.5% on Humanity’s Last Exam, trailing Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5 at 55.5% amid steady gains across frontier large language models since the benchmark’s 2025 debut. Traders assign an 86% implied probability to OpenAI models reaching at least 50% by year-end, reflecting expectations of continued scaling, reasoning improvements, and potential new releases that could close the gap with competitors. Key swing factors include OpenAI’s pace of iteration versus Anthropic and Google DeepMind, benchmark revisions under the HLE-Rolling process, and any demonstrated capability jumps on expert-level questions in math, science, and humanities. Resolution hinges on the highest verified OpenAI score posted through December 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ET
Volume
$46,204End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol currently sits at 49.5% on Humanity’s Last Exam, trailing Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5 at 55.5% amid steady gains across frontier large language models since the benchmark’s 2025 debut. Traders assign an 86% implied probability to OpenAI models reaching at least 50% by year-end, reflecting expectations of continued scaling, reasoning improvements, and potential new releases that could close the gap with competitors. Key swing factors include OpenAI’s pace of iteration versus Anthropic and Google DeepMind, benchmark revisions under the HLE-Rolling process, and any demonstrated capability jumps on expert-level questions in math, science, and humanities. Resolution hinges on the highest verified OpenAI score posted through December 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$46,204End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol currently sits at 49.5% on Humanity’s Last Exam, trailing Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5 at 55.5% amid steady gains across frontier large language models since the benchmark’s 2025 debut. Traders assign an 86% implied probability to OpenAI models reaching at least 50% by year-end, reflecting expectations of continued scaling, reasoning improvements, and potential new releases that could close the gap with competitors. Key swing factors include OpenAI’s pace of iteration versus Anthropic and Google DeepMind, benchmark revisions under the HLE-Rolling process, and any demonstrated capability jumps on expert-level questions in math, science, and humanities. Resolution hinges on the highest verified OpenAI score posted through December 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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