Recent Gemini iterations, including the 3.1 Pro Preview and 3.7 Flash variants reaching 44.7–47.9% on Humanity’s Last Exam, have driven trader consensus toward a 71–76% implied probability of at least 50% by year-end. Iterative gains in reasoning and test-time compute, building on the 37.5% posted by Gemini 3 Pro in late 2025, reflect Google DeepMind’s focus on closing the gap with leaders like Claude Fable 5 at 55.5%. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic models, plus any unannounced previews or scaling advances before December, remain key swing factors for thresholds above 55%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$44,068 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
50%+
71%
55%+
44%
60%+
23%
65%+
14%
70%+
6%
$44,068 Vol.
50%+
$18,559 Vol.
71%
55%+
$6,935 Vol.
44%
60%+
$9,238 Vol.
23%
65%+
$4,988 Vol.
14%
70%+
$4,348 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Recent Gemini iterations, including the 3.1 Pro Preview and 3.7 Flash variants reaching 44.7–47.9% on Humanity’s Last Exam, have driven trader consensus toward a 71–76% implied probability of at least 50% by year-end. Iterative gains in reasoning and test-time compute, building on the 37.5% posted by Gemini 3 Pro in late 2025, reflect Google DeepMind’s focus on closing the gap with leaders like Claude Fable 5 at 55.5%. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic models, plus any unannounced previews or scaling advances before December, remain key swing factors for thresholds above 55%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ET
Volume
$44,068End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Recent Gemini iterations, including the 3.1 Pro Preview and 3.7 Flash variants reaching 44.7–47.9% on Humanity’s Last Exam, have driven trader consensus toward a 71–76% implied probability of at least 50% by year-end. Iterative gains in reasoning and test-time compute, building on the 37.5% posted by Gemini 3 Pro in late 2025, reflect Google DeepMind’s focus on closing the gap with leaders like Claude Fable 5 at 55.5%. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic models, plus any unannounced previews or scaling advances before December, remain key swing factors for thresholds above 55%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$44,068End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Gemini iterations, including the 3.1 Pro Preview and 3.7 Flash variants reaching 44.7–47.9% on Humanity’s Last Exam, have driven trader consensus toward a 71–76% implied probability of at least 50% by year-end. Iterative gains in reasoning and test-time compute, building on the 37.5% posted by Gemini 3 Pro in late 2025, reflect Google DeepMind’s focus on closing the gap with leaders like Claude Fable 5 at 55.5%. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic models, plus any unannounced previews or scaling advances before December, remain key swing factors for thresholds above 55%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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