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icon for Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30?

Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30?

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30?

Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30?

8% chance
Polymarket
NEW
8% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Flávio Bolsonaro faces ongoing inquiries tied to financing for the biographical film *Dark Horse* and a separate calúnia investigation, but these have not produced charges.** As of late August 2026, Supreme Court Justice Flávio Dino authorized Federal Police access to evidence from a São Paulo operation linked to the film's producer, while a parallel inquiry examines alleged payments from jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro of Banco Master. The calúnia case, stemming from January 2026 social media posts associating President Lula with international crimes, reached the Prosecutor General’s Office after Federal Police findings, with Flávio submitting a written denial. These matters remain at the investigative or referral stage rather than formal charges. Flávio holds a Senate seat with foro privilegiado, which routes cases through the Supreme Court and typically lengthens timelines. He continues active campaigning as the Liberal Party presidential candidate, including recent TSE filing and party endorsements, without reported new arrests or indictments in the immediate run-up to the September 30 cutoff. Brazilian judicial processes against sitting legislators and presidential contenders move deliberately, especially amid electoral calendars, supporting trader consensus that an arrest or charge by the deadline remains improbable.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,466
End Date
Oct 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:22 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Flávio Bolsonaro faces ongoing inquiries tied to financing for the biographical film *Dark Horse* and a separate calúnia investigation, but these have not produced charges.** As of late August 2026, Supreme Court Justice Flávio Dino authorized Federal Police access to evidence from a São Paulo operation linked to the film's producer, while a parallel inquiry examines alleged payments from jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro of Banco Master. The calúnia case, stemming from January 2026 social media posts associating President Lula with international crimes, reached the Prosecutor General’s Office after Federal Police findings, with Flávio submitting a written denial. These matters remain at the investigative or referral stage rather than formal charges. Flávio holds a Senate seat with foro privilegiado, which routes cases through the Supreme Court and typically lengthens timelines. He continues active campaigning as the Liberal Party presidential candidate, including recent TSE filing and party endorsements, without reported new arrests or indictments in the immediate run-up to the September 30 cutoff. Brazilian judicial processes against sitting legislators and presidential contenders move deliberately, especially amid electoral calendars, supporting trader consensus that an arrest or charge by the deadline remains improbable.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,466
End Date
Oct 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:22 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 8% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 8¢, the market collectively assigns a 8% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30?" is 8% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 8% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.