Elevated July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside mixed July employment data showing a 23,000 payroll decline but unemployment at 4.1%, underpin the 71.5% implied probability of no change and 24.5% for a 25 basis point hike at the October FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.5–3.75% after the July hold and dot plot signals favoring tighter policy amid above-target inflation, traders price limited room for easing while assigning low odds to cuts. Recent nonfarm payroll weakness has tempered hike expectations modestly, but persistent price pressures and upcoming September CPI and FOMC data releases remain key swing factors before the October 27–28 decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 72%
25 bps increase 25%
25 bps decrease 4.3%
50+ bps decrease 1.3%
$785,576 Vol.
$785,576 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
72%
25 bps increase
25%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 72%
25 bps increase 25%
25 bps decrease 4.3%
50+ bps decrease 1.3%
$785,576 Vol.
$785,576 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$150,698 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$235,055 Vol.
4%
No change
$157,595 Vol.
72%
25 bps increase
$153,448 Vol.
25%
50+ bps increase
$88,779 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside mixed July employment data showing a 23,000 payroll decline but unemployment at 4.1%, underpin the 71.5% implied probability of no change and 24.5% for a 25 basis point hike at the October FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.5–3.75% after the July hold and dot plot signals favoring tighter policy amid above-target inflation, traders price limited room for easing while assigning low odds to cuts. Recent nonfarm payroll weakness has tempered hike expectations modestly, but persistent price pressures and upcoming September CPI and FOMC data releases remain key swing factors before the October 27–28 decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$785,576End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside mixed July employment data showing a 23,000 payroll decline but unemployment at 4.1%, underpin the 71.5% implied probability of no change and 24.5% for a 25 basis point hike at the October FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.5–3.75% after the July hold and dot plot signals favoring tighter policy amid above-target inflation, traders price limited room for easing while assigning low odds to cuts. Recent nonfarm payroll weakness has tempered hike expectations modestly, but persistent price pressures and upcoming September CPI and FOMC data releases remain key swing factors before the October 27–28 decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$785,576End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside mixed July employment data showing a 23,000 payroll decline but unemployment at 4.1%, underpin the 71.5% implied probability of no change and 24.5% for a 25 basis point hike at the October FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.5–3.75% after the July hold and dot plot signals favoring tighter policy amid above-target inflation, traders price limited room for easing while assigning low odds to cuts. Recent nonfarm payroll weakness has tempered hike expectations modestly, but persistent price pressures and upcoming September CPI and FOMC data releases remain key swing factors before the October 27–28 decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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