Lula faces Senate resistance to filling the vacant STF seat left by Luís Roberto Barroso's 2025 retirement, after lawmakers rejected his nominee Jorge Messias 42-34 in April 2026—the first such defeat in over a century. Recent reporting indicates the president is evaluating whether to resubmit Messias or select a consensus alternative, possibly a woman, before the October 2026 election, while weighing relations with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre and STF leadership. Lula has publicly reaffirmed his commitment to Messias but has received advice to avoid new friction ahead of compulsory retirements of other justices. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over timing, Senate dynamics, and Lula's re-election prospects, with any announcement hinging on negotiations in the final weeks of the campaign.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$21,802 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
36%
December 31
63%
$21,802 Vol.
September 30
$2,529 Vol.
36%
December 31
$5,524 Vol.
63%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lula faces Senate resistance to filling the vacant STF seat left by Luís Roberto Barroso's 2025 retirement, after lawmakers rejected his nominee Jorge Messias 42-34 in April 2026—the first such defeat in over a century. Recent reporting indicates the president is evaluating whether to resubmit Messias or select a consensus alternative, possibly a woman, before the October 2026 election, while weighing relations with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre and STF leadership. Lula has publicly reaffirmed his commitment to Messias but has received advice to avoid new friction ahead of compulsory retirements of other justices. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over timing, Senate dynamics, and Lula's re-election prospects, with any announcement hinging on negotiations in the final weeks of the campaign.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
Volume
$21,802End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lula faces Senate resistance to filling the vacant STF seat left by Luís Roberto Barroso's 2025 retirement, after lawmakers rejected his nominee Jorge Messias 42-34 in April 2026—the first such defeat in over a century. Recent reporting indicates the president is evaluating whether to resubmit Messias or select a consensus alternative, possibly a woman, before the October 2026 election, while weighing relations with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre and STF leadership. Lula has publicly reaffirmed his commitment to Messias but has received advice to avoid new friction ahead of compulsory retirements of other justices. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over timing, Senate dynamics, and Lula's re-election prospects, with any announcement hinging on negotiations in the final weeks of the campaign.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$21,802End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lula faces Senate resistance to filling the vacant STF seat left by Luís Roberto Barroso's 2025 retirement, after lawmakers rejected his nominee Jorge Messias 42-34 in April 2026—the first such defeat in over a century. Recent reporting indicates the president is evaluating whether to resubmit Messias or select a consensus alternative, possibly a woman, before the October 2026 election, while weighing relations with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre and STF leadership. Lula has publicly reaffirmed his commitment to Messias but has received advice to avoid new friction ahead of compulsory retirements of other justices. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over timing, Senate dynamics, and Lula's re-election prospects, with any announcement hinging on negotiations in the final weeks of the campaign.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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