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Politics·US Election

Will Florida's "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" referendum pass in November 2026?

icon for Will Florida's "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" referendum pass in November 2026?
Politics·US Election

Will Florida's "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" referendum pass in November 2026?

30% chance
Polymarket
NEW
30% chance
Polymarket
NEW
Florida Amendment 3, also referred to as "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" and the "Homestead Tax Exemptions, Property Assessments, and Spending Restrictions Amendment" is a Florida legislatively referred constitutional amendment currently scheduled for voting as a ballot measure on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by the numerical threshold of voters in Florida required for it to pass at the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Florida, including the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/). Florida's proposed constitutional amendment to expand homestead exemptions to $250,000 by 2028, cap non-homestead assessment growth, and restrict local property tax spending faces a 60% voter threshold for passage. It advanced via Republican-led special session in June 2026 but encountered legal challenges, prompting an August court-ordered rewrite of the ballot title and summary to neutral language after the original phrasing was deemed a political slogan. Polling shows initial support near 61-64%, but it falls to 45% when voters learn of projected $11.8 billion local budget shortfalls over two years, highlighting risks to public services. Partisan gaps and fiscal concerns appear to underpin trader expectations that the measure will fall short.

Florida Amendment 3, also referred to as "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" and the "Homestead Tax Exemptions, Property Assessments, and Spending Restrictions Amendment" is a Florida legislatively referred constitutional amendment currently scheduled for voting as a ballot measure on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by the numerical threshold of voters in Florida required for it to pass at the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Florida, including the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/).
Volume
$1,449
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 6:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Florida Amendment 3, also referred to as "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" and the "Homestead Tax Exemptions, Property Assessments, and Spending Restrictions Amendment" is a Florida legislatively referred constitutional amendment currently scheduled for voting as a ballot measure on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by the numerical threshold of voters in Florida required for it to pass at the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Florida, including the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/).
Florida Amendment 3, also referred to as "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" and the "Homestead Tax Exemptions, Property Assessments, and Spending Restrictions Amendment" is a Florida legislatively referred constitutional amendment currently scheduled for voting as a ballot measure on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by the numerical threshold of voters in Florida required for it to pass at the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Florida, including the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/). Florida's proposed constitutional amendment to expand homestead exemptions to $250,000 by 2028, cap non-homestead assessment growth, and restrict local property tax spending faces a 60% voter threshold for passage. It advanced via Republican-led special session in June 2026 but encountered legal challenges, prompting an August court-ordered rewrite of the ballot title and summary to neutral language after the original phrasing was deemed a political slogan. Polling shows initial support near 61-64%, but it falls to 45% when voters learn of projected $11.8 billion local budget shortfalls over two years, highlighting risks to public services. Partisan gaps and fiscal concerns appear to underpin trader expectations that the measure will fall short.

Florida Amendment 3, also referred to as "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" and the "Homestead Tax Exemptions, Property Assessments, and Spending Restrictions Amendment" is a Florida legislatively referred constitutional amendment currently scheduled for voting as a ballot measure on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by the numerical threshold of voters in Florida required for it to pass at the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Florida, including the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/).
Volume
$1,449
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 6:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Florida Amendment 3, also referred to as "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" and the "Homestead Tax Exemptions, Property Assessments, and Spending Restrictions Amendment" is a Florida legislatively referred constitutional amendment currently scheduled for voting as a ballot measure on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by the numerical threshold of voters in Florida required for it to pass at the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Florida, including the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Florida's "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" referendum pass in November 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 30% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 30¢, the market collectively assigns a 30% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Florida's "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" referendum pass in November 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 8, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Florida's "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" referendum pass in November 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Florida's "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" referendum pass in November 2026?" is 30% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 30% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Florida's "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" referendum pass in November 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.