Anthropic’s Claude service has experienced documented outages or elevated errors on at least seven distinct August 2026 dates—August 5, 12, 13, 16, 18, 20, and 24—according to its public status page. The latest incident, a roughly three-hour partial outage on August 24 affecting multiple models (Opus 5, Fable 5, Mythos 5, Opus 4.8) plus claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and Claude Cowork, resolved by 08:30 UTC after engineers identified the cause within 20 minutes. These recurring, usually brief disruptions align with the platform’s reported 99.29% uptime over the prior 60 days while still producing multiple impact days per month. With only a week left in August and no indication of systemic fixes, trader consensus reflected in the 83.5% probability for 8–10 downtime days incorporates the established pattern and the most recent event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated8-10 84%
5-7 6.3%
11-13 4.6%
14+ 3.4%
$32,768 Vol.
$32,768 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
5-7
6%
8-10
84%
11-13
5%
14+
3%
8-10 84%
5-7 6.3%
11-13 4.6%
14+ 3.4%
$32,768 Vol.
$32,768 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
5-7
$8,035 Vol.
6%
8-10
$7,077 Vol.
84%
11-13
$3,856 Vol.
5%
14+
$4,361 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Anthropic’s Claude service has experienced documented outages or elevated errors on at least seven distinct August 2026 dates—August 5, 12, 13, 16, 18, 20, and 24—according to its public status page. The latest incident, a roughly three-hour partial outage on August 24 affecting multiple models (Opus 5, Fable 5, Mythos 5, Opus 4.8) plus claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and Claude Cowork, resolved by 08:30 UTC after engineers identified the cause within 20 minutes. These recurring, usually brief disruptions align with the platform’s reported 99.29% uptime over the prior 60 days while still producing multiple impact days per month. With only a week left in August and no indication of systemic fixes, trader consensus reflected in the 83.5% probability for 8–10 downtime days incorporates the established pattern and the most recent event.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Volume
$32,768End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Anthropic’s Claude service has experienced documented outages or elevated errors on at least seven distinct August 2026 dates—August 5, 12, 13, 16, 18, 20, and 24—according to its public status page. The latest incident, a roughly three-hour partial outage on August 24 affecting multiple models (Opus 5, Fable 5, Mythos 5, Opus 4.8) plus claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and Claude Cowork, resolved by 08:30 UTC after engineers identified the cause within 20 minutes. These recurring, usually brief disruptions align with the platform’s reported 99.29% uptime over the prior 60 days while still producing multiple impact days per month. With only a week left in August and no indication of systemic fixes, trader consensus reflected in the 83.5% probability for 8–10 downtime days incorporates the established pattern and the most recent event.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volume
$32,768End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude service has experienced documented outages or elevated errors on at least seven distinct August 2026 dates—August 5, 12, 13, 16, 18, 20, and 24—according to its public status page. The latest incident, a roughly three-hour partial outage on August 24 affecting multiple models (Opus 5, Fable 5, Mythos 5, Opus 4.8) plus claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and Claude Cowork, resolved by 08:30 UTC after engineers identified the cause within 20 minutes. These recurring, usually brief disruptions align with the platform’s reported 99.29% uptime over the prior 60 days while still producing multiple impact days per month. With only a week left in August and no indication of systemic fixes, trader consensus reflected in the 83.5% probability for 8–10 downtime days incorporates the established pattern and the most recent event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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