Recent releases from frontier labs have driven trader sentiment on whether any AI model hits the Math Arena threshold by year-end, with Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 (max) posting an 84.4% score in July 2026 and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants close behind at nearly 80%. Progress stems from scaled test-time reasoning, larger context windows, and specialized math fine-tuning, outpacing earlier 2025 gains on AIME and MATH benchmarks. Open-weight contenders like Moonshot's Kimi K3 trail at around 70%, underscoring closed-model advantages in compute and data. Key catalysts ahead include potential GPT-5 iterations, Gemini updates, and developer conferences through Q4, though model timelines often slip and exact resolution criteria on the MathArena leaderboard remain sensitive to evaluation prompts and costs. Traders weigh these dynamics against the four-month window remaining.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$115,019 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
1575
73%
1600
28%
$115,019 Vol.
1575
$34,350 Vol.
73%
1600
$12,063 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases from frontier labs have driven trader sentiment on whether any AI model hits the Math Arena threshold by year-end, with Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 (max) posting an 84.4% score in July 2026 and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants close behind at nearly 80%. Progress stems from scaled test-time reasoning, larger context windows, and specialized math fine-tuning, outpacing earlier 2025 gains on AIME and MATH benchmarks. Open-weight contenders like Moonshot's Kimi K3 trail at around 70%, underscoring closed-model advantages in compute and data. Key catalysts ahead include potential GPT-5 iterations, Gemini updates, and developer conferences through Q4, though model timelines often slip and exact resolution criteria on the MathArena leaderboard remain sensitive to evaluation prompts and costs. Traders weigh these dynamics against the four-month window remaining.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Apr 2, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$115,019End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases from frontier labs have driven trader sentiment on whether any AI model hits the Math Arena threshold by year-end, with Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 (max) posting an 84.4% score in July 2026 and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants close behind at nearly 80%. Progress stems from scaled test-time reasoning, larger context windows, and specialized math fine-tuning, outpacing earlier 2025 gains on AIME and MATH benchmarks. Open-weight contenders like Moonshot's Kimi K3 trail at around 70%, underscoring closed-model advantages in compute and data. Key catalysts ahead include potential GPT-5 iterations, Gemini updates, and developer conferences through Q4, though model timelines often slip and exact resolution criteria on the MathArena leaderboard remain sensitive to evaluation prompts and costs. Traders weigh these dynamics against the four-month window remaining.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$115,019End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent releases from frontier labs have driven trader sentiment on whether any AI model hits the Math Arena threshold by year-end, with Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 (max) posting an 84.4% score in July 2026 and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants close behind at nearly 80%. Progress stems from scaled test-time reasoning, larger context windows, and specialized math fine-tuning, outpacing earlier 2025 gains on AIME and MATH benchmarks. Open-weight contenders like Moonshot's Kimi K3 trail at around 70%, underscoring closed-model advantages in compute and data. Key catalysts ahead include potential GPT-5 iterations, Gemini updates, and developer conferences through Q4, though model timelines often slip and exact resolution criteria on the MathArena leaderboard remain sensitive to evaluation prompts and costs. Traders weigh these dynamics against the four-month window remaining.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions