Recent polling averages place the AfD at 41–43 percent ahead of the September 6, 2026, Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election, well ahead of the CDU at 22–24 percent and the Left at 13 percent, with the SPD, Greens, BSW, and FDP near or below the 5 percent threshold. Under proportional representation with an 83-seat parliament, absolute majority requires 42 seats; current distributions show the AfD reaching or falling one seat short depending on which smaller parties clear the hurdle and how wasted votes are allocated. Other parties continue to rule out cooperation with the AfD, leaving an outright majority as the sole path to sole government. Traders assign the “No” side a 68.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the gap between stable polling levels and the precise seat math needed for a majority. No major late-campaign shifts have altered this positioning in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
26% chance
$402,380 Vol.
$402,380 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
26% chance
$402,380 Vol.
$402,380 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polling averages place the AfD at 41–43 percent ahead of the September 6, 2026, Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election, well ahead of the CDU at 22–24 percent and the Left at 13 percent, with the SPD, Greens, BSW, and FDP near or below the 5 percent threshold. Under proportional representation with an 83-seat parliament, absolute majority requires 42 seats; current distributions show the AfD reaching or falling one seat short depending on which smaller parties clear the hurdle and how wasted votes are allocated. Other parties continue to rule out cooperation with the AfD, leaving an outright majority as the sole path to sole government. Traders assign the “No” side a 68.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the gap between stable polling levels and the precise seat math needed for a majority. No major late-campaign shifts have altered this positioning in the final weeks.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 7:48 PM ET
Volume
$402,380End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polling averages place the AfD at 41–43 percent ahead of the September 6, 2026, Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election, well ahead of the CDU at 22–24 percent and the Left at 13 percent, with the SPD, Greens, BSW, and FDP near or below the 5 percent threshold. Under proportional representation with an 83-seat parliament, absolute majority requires 42 seats; current distributions show the AfD reaching or falling one seat short depending on which smaller parties clear the hurdle and how wasted votes are allocated. Other parties continue to rule out cooperation with the AfD, leaving an outright majority as the sole path to sole government. Traders assign the “No” side a 68.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the gap between stable polling levels and the precise seat math needed for a majority. No major late-campaign shifts have altered this positioning in the final weeks.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Volume
$402,380End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages place the AfD at 41–43 percent ahead of the September 6, 2026, Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election, well ahead of the CDU at 22–24 percent and the Left at 13 percent, with the SPD, Greens, BSW, and FDP near or below the 5 percent threshold. Under proportional representation with an 83-seat parliament, absolute majority requires 42 seats; current distributions show the AfD reaching or falling one seat short depending on which smaller parties clear the hurdle and how wasted votes are allocated. Other parties continue to rule out cooperation with the AfD, leaving an outright majority as the sole path to sole government. Traders assign the “No” side a 68.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the gap between stable polling levels and the precise seat math needed for a majority. No major late-campaign shifts have altered this positioning in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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