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Politics·French Elections

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

icon for Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Politics·French Elections

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

$109,017 Vol.

Apr 29, 2027
Polymarket

$109,017 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen

$9,624 Vol.

87%

icon for Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$6,720 Vol.

47%

icon for Édouard Philippe

Édouard Philippe

$2,179 Vol.

39%

icon for Jordan Bardella

Jordan Bardella

$21,198 Vol.

10%

icon for Olivier Faure

Olivier Faure

$378 Vol.

8%

icon for Gabriel Attal

Gabriel Attal

$2,497 Vol.

7%

icon for Carole Delga

Carole Delga

$2,006 Vol.

7%

icon for Manuel Bompard

Manuel Bompard

$3,002 Vol.

7%

icon for Raphaël Glucksmann

Raphaël Glucksmann

$3,829 Vol.

7%

icon for Bernard Cazeneuve

Bernard Cazeneuve

$3,780 Vol.

7%

icon for Fabien Roussel

Fabien Roussel

$2,632 Vol.

6%

icon for Michel Barnier

Michel Barnier

$1,093 Vol.

5%

icon for Élisabeth Borne

Élisabeth Borne

$3,608 Vol.

5%

icon for Sébastien Lecornu

Sébastien Lecornu

$1,528 Vol.

4%

icon for Gérald Darmanin

Gérald Darmanin

$1,111 Vol.

4%

icon for François Hollande

François Hollande

$5,061 Vol.

4%

icon for Dominique de Villepin

Dominique de Villepin

$1,114 Vol.

4%

icon for Laurent Wauquiez

Laurent Wauquiez

$610 Vol.

4%

icon for Mathilde Panot

Mathilde Panot

$829 Vol.

4%

icon for Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$643 Vol.

4%

icon for Éric Zemmour

Éric Zemmour

$631 Vol.

3%

icon for Bruno Retailleau

Bruno Retailleau

$2,011 Vol.

3%

icon for David Lisnard

David Lisnard

$2,422 Vol.

3%

icon for François Bayrou

François Bayrou

$978 Vol.

2%

icon for Juan Branco

Juan Branco

$2,705 Vol.

2%

icon for François Ruffin

François Ruffin

$4,776 Vol.

2%

icon for Yaël Braun-Pivet

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$2,043 Vol.

2%

icon for François Asselineau

François Asselineau

$1,768 Vol.

2%

icon for Sarah Knafo

Sarah Knafo

$2,693 Vol.

2%

icon for Clémence Guetté

Clémence Guetté

$2,002 Vol.

1%

icon for Xavier Bertrand

Xavier Bertrand

$1,537 Vol.

1%

icon for Clémentine Autain

Clémentine Autain

$3,295 Vol.

1%

icon for Jean Castex

Jean Castex

$1,230 Vol.

1%

icon for Marine Tondelier

Marine Tondelier

$2,851 Vol.

1%

icon for Ségolène Royal

Ségolène Royal

$3,188 Vol.

1%

icon for Valérie Pécresse

Valérie Pécresse

$1,336 Vol.

<1%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Marine Le Pen of the National Rally maintains a commanding lead in first-round voting intentions at 33-36% in recent Ifop and Harris Interactive polls from August 2026, securing near-certain advancement to the runoff. Fragmentation among centrist and moderate candidates—Édouard Philippe, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, and Raphaël Glucksmann—has opened space for Jean-Luc Mélenchon of La France Insoumise to surge to 16-19%, positioning him to challenge for the second spot in multiple scenarios. A first multi-candidate debate on August 27 highlighted policy divides on debt, spending, and EU issues without clarifying the field. Le Pen’s July appeal ruling cleared her path after an earlier conviction, while center-left and center-right efforts to consolidate remain stalled ahead of the April 2027 first round. Trader focus centers on whether a unified moderate challenger can emerge before voting intentions solidify.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$109,017
End Date
Apr 30, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 7:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Marine Le Pen of the National Rally maintains a commanding lead in first-round voting intentions at 33-36% in recent Ifop and Harris Interactive polls from August 2026, securing near-certain advancement to the runoff. Fragmentation among centrist and moderate candidates—Édouard Philippe, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, and Raphaël Glucksmann—has opened space for Jean-Luc Mélenchon of La France Insoumise to surge to 16-19%, positioning him to challenge for the second spot in multiple scenarios. A first multi-candidate debate on August 27 highlighted policy divides on debt, spending, and EU issues without clarifying the field. Le Pen’s July appeal ruling cleared her path after an earlier conviction, while center-left and center-right efforts to consolidate remain stalled ahead of the April 2027 first round. Trader focus centers on whether a unified moderate challenger can emerge before voting intentions solidify.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$109,017
End Date
Apr 30, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 7:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Related

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icon for Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

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icon for Will Éric Zemmour announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Marine Le Pen" at 87%, followed by "Jean-Luc Mélenchon" at 47%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 87¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?" has generated $109K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?" is "Marine Le Pen" at 87%, meaning the market assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jean-Luc Mélenchon" at 47%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.