US naval operations, including approximately 20 warships such as the carriers Abraham Lincoln and George H.W. Bush plus escort destroyers in the Gulf of Oman, represent the dominant factor shaping market-implied odds for warship transits through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31. These assets support facilitated commercial oil movements—recently averaging over 8 million barrels daily under protection—while enforcing a blockade and clearing mines, directly tying to energy price stability and tanker charter rates amid the Iran conflict. Recent de-escalation talks between Iran and Oman, which propose excluding military vessels from certain routes, introduce uncertainty, though US Central Command's mine-clearance milestone and ongoing escorts signal sustained presence. With resolution imminent, trader consensus aggregates real-capital views on whether additional US or allied transits occur before the deadline, against historical precedents of freedom-of-navigation assertions in the chokepoint handling roughly 20% of global crude.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?
$275,227 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
US
3%
UK
<1%
France
<1%
Netherlands
<1%
Greece
<1%
Italy
<1%
Australia
<1%
Germany
<1%
$275,227 Vol.
US
$44,774 Vol.
3%
UK
$22,303 Vol.
<1%
France
$58,614 Vol.
<1%
Netherlands
$45,693 Vol.
<1%
Greece
$3,992 Vol.
<1%
Italy
$6,269 Vol.
<1%
Australia
$1,328 Vol.
<1%
Germany
$92,254 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.US naval operations, including approximately 20 warships such as the carriers Abraham Lincoln and George H.W. Bush plus escort destroyers in the Gulf of Oman, represent the dominant factor shaping market-implied odds for warship transits through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31. These assets support facilitated commercial oil movements—recently averaging over 8 million barrels daily under protection—while enforcing a blockade and clearing mines, directly tying to energy price stability and tanker charter rates amid the Iran conflict. Recent de-escalation talks between Iran and Oman, which propose excluding military vessels from certain routes, introduce uncertainty, though US Central Command's mine-clearance milestone and ongoing escorts signal sustained presence. With resolution imminent, trader consensus aggregates real-capital views on whether additional US or allied transits occur before the deadline, against historical precedents of freedom-of-navigation assertions in the chokepoint handling roughly 20% of global crude.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Volume
$275,227End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.US naval operations, including approximately 20 warships such as the carriers Abraham Lincoln and George H.W. Bush plus escort destroyers in the Gulf of Oman, represent the dominant factor shaping market-implied odds for warship transits through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31. These assets support facilitated commercial oil movements—recently averaging over 8 million barrels daily under protection—while enforcing a blockade and clearing mines, directly tying to energy price stability and tanker charter rates amid the Iran conflict. Recent de-escalation talks between Iran and Oman, which propose excluding military vessels from certain routes, introduce uncertainty, though US Central Command's mine-clearance milestone and ongoing escorts signal sustained presence. With resolution imminent, trader consensus aggregates real-capital views on whether additional US or allied transits occur before the deadline, against historical precedents of freedom-of-navigation assertions in the chokepoint handling roughly 20% of global crude.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$275,227End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US naval operations, including approximately 20 warships such as the carriers Abraham Lincoln and George H.W. Bush plus escort destroyers in the Gulf of Oman, represent the dominant factor shaping market-implied odds for warship transits through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31. These assets support facilitated commercial oil movements—recently averaging over 8 million barrels daily under protection—while enforcing a blockade and clearing mines, directly tying to energy price stability and tanker charter rates amid the Iran conflict. Recent de-escalation talks between Iran and Oman, which propose excluding military vessels from certain routes, introduce uncertainty, though US Central Command's mine-clearance milestone and ongoing escorts signal sustained presence. With resolution imminent, trader consensus aggregates real-capital views on whether additional US or allied transits occur before the deadline, against historical precedents of freedom-of-navigation assertions in the chokepoint handling roughly 20% of global crude.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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