Ongoing U.S. naval operations amid the Iran conflict represent the dominant driver of sentiment in this market, with approximately 20 warships—including carriers Abraham Lincoln and George H.W. Bush—active in the Gulf of Oman to escort tankers, enforce blockades, and clear mines as of late August 2026. This presence directly supports oil transit security for roughly one-fifth of global seaborne crude and LNG, keeping war-risk premiums elevated and limiting commercial volumes to well below pre-February baselines despite recent mine-clearance announcements. Iran-Oman talks on a temporary revenue-sharing corridor and continued IRGC drone incidents introduce near-term uncertainty through August 31, while potential coalition participation by allies remains limited by the compressed timeline and ongoing volatility in energy benchmarks. Trader focus centers on confirmed transits versus diplomatic de-escalation signals that could alter naval postures before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?
$276,971 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
US
2%
UK
<1%
France
<1%
Netherlands
<1%
Greece
<1%
Italy
<1%
Australia
<1%
Germany
<1%
$276,971 Vol.
US
$44,898 Vol.
2%
UK
$23,629 Vol.
<1%
France
$58,654 Vol.
<1%
Netherlands
$45,713 Vol.
<1%
Greece
$4,193 Vol.
<1%
Italy
$6,269 Vol.
<1%
Australia
$1,328 Vol.
<1%
Germany
$92,287 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Ongoing U.S. naval operations amid the Iran conflict represent the dominant driver of sentiment in this market, with approximately 20 warships—including carriers Abraham Lincoln and George H.W. Bush—active in the Gulf of Oman to escort tankers, enforce blockades, and clear mines as of late August 2026. This presence directly supports oil transit security for roughly one-fifth of global seaborne crude and LNG, keeping war-risk premiums elevated and limiting commercial volumes to well below pre-February baselines despite recent mine-clearance announcements. Iran-Oman talks on a temporary revenue-sharing corridor and continued IRGC drone incidents introduce near-term uncertainty through August 31, while potential coalition participation by allies remains limited by the compressed timeline and ongoing volatility in energy benchmarks. Trader focus centers on confirmed transits versus diplomatic de-escalation signals that could alter naval postures before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Volume
$276,971End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Ongoing U.S. naval operations amid the Iran conflict represent the dominant driver of sentiment in this market, with approximately 20 warships—including carriers Abraham Lincoln and George H.W. Bush—active in the Gulf of Oman to escort tankers, enforce blockades, and clear mines as of late August 2026. This presence directly supports oil transit security for roughly one-fifth of global seaborne crude and LNG, keeping war-risk premiums elevated and limiting commercial volumes to well below pre-February baselines despite recent mine-clearance announcements. Iran-Oman talks on a temporary revenue-sharing corridor and continued IRGC drone incidents introduce near-term uncertainty through August 31, while potential coalition participation by allies remains limited by the compressed timeline and ongoing volatility in energy benchmarks. Trader focus centers on confirmed transits versus diplomatic de-escalation signals that could alter naval postures before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$276,971End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S. naval operations amid the Iran conflict represent the dominant driver of sentiment in this market, with approximately 20 warships—including carriers Abraham Lincoln and George H.W. Bush—active in the Gulf of Oman to escort tankers, enforce blockades, and clear mines as of late August 2026. This presence directly supports oil transit security for roughly one-fifth of global seaborne crude and LNG, keeping war-risk premiums elevated and limiting commercial volumes to well below pre-February baselines despite recent mine-clearance announcements. Iran-Oman talks on a temporary revenue-sharing corridor and continued IRGC drone incidents introduce near-term uncertainty through August 31, while potential coalition participation by allies remains limited by the compressed timeline and ongoing volatility in energy benchmarks. Trader focus centers on confirmed transits versus diplomatic de-escalation signals that could alter naval postures before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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