Ongoing U.S.-China trade frameworks, including the 2025 Busan arrangement and May 2026 establishment of bilateral Boards of Trade and Investment during the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, underpin the 85.8% trader consensus. These steps created formal channels for reciprocal tariff modifications on non-sensitive goods, extended suspensions of higher duties, and included Chinese commitments on agricultural purchases. Recent Section 301 actions have added replacement tariffs near 12.5% while staying within the 20% ceiling referenced in prior talks, with a planned 7.5% overcapacity duty ahead of the September 2026 Washington summit. Both sides continue negotiations to extend the truce expiring November 10, 2026, and advance managed trade mechanisms through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
86% chance
$231,934 Vol.
$231,934 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
86% chance
$231,934 Vol.
$231,934 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing U.S.-China trade frameworks, including the 2025 Busan arrangement and May 2026 establishment of bilateral Boards of Trade and Investment during the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, underpin the 85.8% trader consensus. These steps created formal channels for reciprocal tariff modifications on non-sensitive goods, extended suspensions of higher duties, and included Chinese commitments on agricultural purchases. Recent Section 301 actions have added replacement tariffs near 12.5% while staying within the 20% ceiling referenced in prior talks, with a planned 7.5% overcapacity duty ahead of the September 2026 Washington summit. Both sides continue negotiations to extend the truce expiring November 10, 2026, and advance managed trade mechanisms through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Market Opened: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Volume
$231,934End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing U.S.-China trade frameworks, including the 2025 Busan arrangement and May 2026 establishment of bilateral Boards of Trade and Investment during the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, underpin the 85.8% trader consensus. These steps created formal channels for reciprocal tariff modifications on non-sensitive goods, extended suspensions of higher duties, and included Chinese commitments on agricultural purchases. Recent Section 301 actions have added replacement tariffs near 12.5% while staying within the 20% ceiling referenced in prior talks, with a planned 7.5% overcapacity duty ahead of the September 2026 Washington summit. Both sides continue negotiations to extend the truce expiring November 10, 2026, and advance managed trade mechanisms through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$231,934End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-China trade frameworks, including the 2025 Busan arrangement and May 2026 establishment of bilateral Boards of Trade and Investment during the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, underpin the 85.8% trader consensus. These steps created formal channels for reciprocal tariff modifications on non-sensitive goods, extended suspensions of higher duties, and included Chinese commitments on agricultural purchases. Recent Section 301 actions have added replacement tariffs near 12.5% while staying within the 20% ceiling referenced in prior talks, with a planned 7.5% overcapacity duty ahead of the September 2026 Washington summit. Both sides continue negotiations to extend the truce expiring November 10, 2026, and advance managed trade mechanisms through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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