Bipartisan proposals such as the FRONTIER Act and Great American AI Act drafts have advanced only through House committee markups without reaching floor votes, while broader federal efforts on frontier model oversight, mandatory audits, and incident reporting remain stalled amid debates over state preemption and regulatory scope. No comprehensive AI safety legislation has cleared Congress in the current session, with state measures in California, New York, and Illinois instead filling the gap through disclosure and audit requirements. Administration signals opposing binding federal mandates, combined with partisan gridlock and competing legislative priorities before the 2026 midterms, have kept enactment prospects low through 2026. Traders reflect this limited momentum in the 90% implied probability against passage before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated10% chance
$101,790 Vol.
$101,790 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
10% chance
$101,790 Vol.
$101,790 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Bipartisan proposals such as the FRONTIER Act and Great American AI Act drafts have advanced only through House committee markups without reaching floor votes, while broader federal efforts on frontier model oversight, mandatory audits, and incident reporting remain stalled amid debates over state preemption and regulatory scope. No comprehensive AI safety legislation has cleared Congress in the current session, with state measures in California, New York, and Illinois instead filling the gap through disclosure and audit requirements. Administration signals opposing binding federal mandates, combined with partisan gridlock and competing legislative priorities before the 2026 midterms, have kept enactment prospects low through 2026. Traders reflect this limited momentum in the 90% implied probability against passage before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volume
$101,790End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Bipartisan proposals such as the FRONTIER Act and Great American AI Act drafts have advanced only through House committee markups without reaching floor votes, while broader federal efforts on frontier model oversight, mandatory audits, and incident reporting remain stalled amid debates over state preemption and regulatory scope. No comprehensive AI safety legislation has cleared Congress in the current session, with state measures in California, New York, and Illinois instead filling the gap through disclosure and audit requirements. Administration signals opposing binding federal mandates, combined with partisan gridlock and competing legislative priorities before the 2026 midterms, have kept enactment prospects low through 2026. Traders reflect this limited momentum in the 90% implied probability against passage before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$101,790End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Bipartisan proposals such as the FRONTIER Act and Great American AI Act drafts have advanced only through House committee markups without reaching floor votes, while broader federal efforts on frontier model oversight, mandatory audits, and incident reporting remain stalled amid debates over state preemption and regulatory scope. No comprehensive AI safety legislation has cleared Congress in the current session, with state measures in California, New York, and Illinois instead filling the gap through disclosure and audit requirements. Administration signals opposing binding federal mandates, combined with partisan gridlock and competing legislative priorities before the 2026 midterms, have kept enactment prospects low through 2026. Traders reflect this limited momentum in the 90% implied probability against passage before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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