**Rhode Island’s 2026 gubernatorial race remains a strong Democratic hold, with trader odds reflecting a projected 20–30 point general-election margin for the eventual Democratic nominee.** The Democratic primary on September 9 pits incumbent Governor Dan McKee against challenger Helena Buonanno Foulkes, who leads recent polls by 15–20 points (45–30 in the latest Emerson/WPRI survey). McKee’s unpopularity, including low approval on issues such as the Washington Bridge project and job claims, has boosted Foulkes, viewed as better positioned in the fall. In hypothetical general-election matchups, a Foulkes-led ticket leads independent Ken Block and the Republican nominee by roughly 24 points, consistent with Rhode Island’s long Democratic dominance and weak GOP performance. Low odds on a Republican victory (under 2%) and concentration of probability in the 20–30 point Democratic margin buckets reflect this structural advantage, though the independent candidacy and primary outcome could modestly adjust the final spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDemocrat 20-25% 17.8%
Democrat 25-30% 15%
Democrat 15-20% 12%
Democrat 30-35% 10.8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Wins
2%
Democrat 0-5%
2%
Democrat 5-10%
4%
Democrat 10-15%
5%
Democrat 15-20%
12%
Democrat 20-25%
18%
Democrat 25-30%
15%
Democrat 30-35%
11%
Democrat 35%+
11%
Democrat 20-25% 17.8%
Democrat 25-30% 15%
Democrat 15-20% 12%
Democrat 30-35% 10.8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Wins
$148 Vol.
2%
Democrat 0-5%
$121 Vol.
2%
Democrat 5-10%
$120 Vol.
4%
Democrat 10-15%
$258 Vol.
5%
Democrat 15-20%
$119 Vol.
12%
Democrat 20-25%
$128 Vol.
18%
Democrat 25-30%
$761 Vol.
15%
Democrat 30-35%
$80 Vol.
11%
Democrat 35%+
$130 Vol.
11%
The 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Rhode Island’s 2026 gubernatorial race remains a strong Democratic hold, with trader odds reflecting a projected 20–30 point general-election margin for the eventual Democratic nominee.** The Democratic primary on September 9 pits incumbent Governor Dan McKee against challenger Helena Buonanno Foulkes, who leads recent polls by 15–20 points (45–30 in the latest Emerson/WPRI survey). McKee’s unpopularity, including low approval on issues such as the Washington Bridge project and job claims, has boosted Foulkes, viewed as better positioned in the fall. In hypothetical general-election matchups, a Foulkes-led ticket leads independent Ken Block and the Republican nominee by roughly 24 points, consistent with Rhode Island’s long Democratic dominance and weak GOP performance. Low odds on a Republican victory (under 2%) and concentration of probability in the 20–30 point Democratic margin buckets reflect this structural advantage, though the independent candidacy and primary outcome could modestly adjust the final spread.
The 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Volume
$1,865End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Rhode Island’s 2026 gubernatorial race remains a strong Democratic hold, with trader odds reflecting a projected 20–30 point general-election margin for the eventual Democratic nominee.** The Democratic primary on September 9 pits incumbent Governor Dan McKee against challenger Helena Buonanno Foulkes, who leads recent polls by 15–20 points (45–30 in the latest Emerson/WPRI survey). McKee’s unpopularity, including low approval on issues such as the Washington Bridge project and job claims, has boosted Foulkes, viewed as better positioned in the fall. In hypothetical general-election matchups, a Foulkes-led ticket leads independent Ken Block and the Republican nominee by roughly 24 points, consistent with Rhode Island’s long Democratic dominance and weak GOP performance. Low odds on a Republican victory (under 2%) and concentration of probability in the 20–30 point Democratic margin buckets reflect this structural advantage, though the independent candidacy and primary outcome could modestly adjust the final spread.
The 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,865End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Rhode Island’s 2026 gubernatorial race remains a strong Democratic hold, with trader odds reflecting a projected 20–30 point general-election margin for the eventual Democratic nominee.** The Democratic primary on September 9 pits incumbent Governor Dan McKee against challenger Helena Buonanno Foulkes, who leads recent polls by 15–20 points (45–30 in the latest Emerson/WPRI survey). McKee’s unpopularity, including low approval on issues such as the Washington Bridge project and job claims, has boosted Foulkes, viewed as better positioned in the fall. In hypothetical general-election matchups, a Foulkes-led ticket leads independent Ken Block and the Republican nominee by roughly 24 points, consistent with Rhode Island’s long Democratic dominance and weak GOP performance. Low odds on a Republican victory (under 2%) and concentration of probability in the 20–30 point Democratic margin buckets reflect this structural advantage, though the independent candidacy and primary outcome could modestly adjust the final spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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