**Democratic incumbent Mary Gay Scanlon holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 5th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election.** The seat carries a Partisan Voter Index of D+15 and is rated Solid or Safe Democratic by Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Scanlon, first elected in 2018 and serving on the Judiciary and Rules committees, ran unopposed in the May 2026 Democratic primary, while Republican nominee Nick Manganaro also advanced without opposition. The district’s suburban Philadelphia footprint, consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, and absence of any competitive challenger or late-breaking developments have produced the current 93.5% Democratic consensus in prediction markets. A realistic shift in odds would require an unforeseen event such as a significant personal or ethical scandal involving the incumbent, an unusually strong national Republican wave that overcomes the structural partisan gap, or a sharp reversal in voter turnout patterns not currently signaled by available data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPA-05 House Election Winner
PA-05 House Election Winner
$33,066 Vol.
$33,066 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$33,066 Vol.
$33,066 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$9,583 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$23,483 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic incumbent Mary Gay Scanlon holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 5th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election.** The seat carries a Partisan Voter Index of D+15 and is rated Solid or Safe Democratic by Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Scanlon, first elected in 2018 and serving on the Judiciary and Rules committees, ran unopposed in the May 2026 Democratic primary, while Republican nominee Nick Manganaro also advanced without opposition. The district’s suburban Philadelphia footprint, consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, and absence of any competitive challenger or late-breaking developments have produced the current 93.5% Democratic consensus in prediction markets.
A realistic shift in odds would require an unforeseen event such as a significant personal or ethical scandal involving the incumbent, an unusually strong national Republican wave that overcomes the structural partisan gap, or a sharp reversal in voter turnout patterns not currently signaled by available data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$33,066End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic incumbent Mary Gay Scanlon holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 5th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election.** The seat carries a Partisan Voter Index of D+15 and is rated Solid or Safe Democratic by Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Scanlon, first elected in 2018 and serving on the Judiciary and Rules committees, ran unopposed in the May 2026 Democratic primary, while Republican nominee Nick Manganaro also advanced without opposition. The district’s suburban Philadelphia footprint, consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, and absence of any competitive challenger or late-breaking developments have produced the current 93.5% Democratic consensus in prediction markets.
A realistic shift in odds would require an unforeseen event such as a significant personal or ethical scandal involving the incumbent, an unusually strong national Republican wave that overcomes the structural partisan gap, or a sharp reversal in voter turnout patterns not currently signaled by available data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,066End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Democratic incumbent Mary Gay Scanlon holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 5th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election.** The seat carries a Partisan Voter Index of D+15 and is rated Solid or Safe Democratic by Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Scanlon, first elected in 2018 and serving on the Judiciary and Rules committees, ran unopposed in the May 2026 Democratic primary, while Republican nominee Nick Manganaro also advanced without opposition. The district’s suburban Philadelphia footprint, consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, and absence of any competitive challenger or late-breaking developments have produced the current 93.5% Democratic consensus in prediction markets. A realistic shift in odds would require an unforeseen event such as a significant personal or ethical scandal involving the incumbent, an unusually strong national Republican wave that overcomes the structural partisan gap, or a sharp reversal in voter turnout patterns not currently signaled by available data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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