Incumbent Democrat Josh Gottheimer holds a commanding position in New Jersey's 5th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a 91.5% implied probability. The D+2 district, rated solid or safe Democratic by Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and other forecasters, features Gottheimer's established moderate record, uncontested primary path, and overwhelming fundraising edge exceeding $12 million in cash on hand against Republican nominee Sean Kirrane's limited resources. Uncontested June primaries and stable partisan voting patterns have reinforced expectations of continuity. Scenarios that could realistically narrow or reverse the margin include a major scandal, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican midterm surge capable of overcoming the district's baseline lean.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-05 House Election Winner
NJ-05 House Election Winner
$16,352 Vol.
$16,352 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
9%
$16,352 Vol.
$16,352 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,051 Vol.
92%
Republican Party
$2,301 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Gottheimer holds a commanding position in New Jersey's 5th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a 91.5% implied probability. The D+2 district, rated solid or safe Democratic by Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and other forecasters, features Gottheimer's established moderate record, uncontested primary path, and overwhelming fundraising edge exceeding $12 million in cash on hand against Republican nominee Sean Kirrane's limited resources. Uncontested June primaries and stable partisan voting patterns have reinforced expectations of continuity. Scenarios that could realistically narrow or reverse the margin include a major scandal, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican midterm surge capable of overcoming the district's baseline lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
Volume
$16,352End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Gottheimer holds a commanding position in New Jersey's 5th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a 91.5% implied probability. The D+2 district, rated solid or safe Democratic by Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and other forecasters, features Gottheimer's established moderate record, uncontested primary path, and overwhelming fundraising edge exceeding $12 million in cash on hand against Republican nominee Sean Kirrane's limited resources. Uncontested June primaries and stable partisan voting patterns have reinforced expectations of continuity. Scenarios that could realistically narrow or reverse the margin include a major scandal, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican midterm surge capable of overcoming the district's baseline lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$16,352End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Josh Gottheimer holds a commanding position in New Jersey's 5th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a 91.5% implied probability. The D+2 district, rated solid or safe Democratic by Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and other forecasters, features Gottheimer's established moderate record, uncontested primary path, and overwhelming fundraising edge exceeding $12 million in cash on hand against Republican nominee Sean Kirrane's limited resources. Uncontested June primaries and stable partisan voting patterns have reinforced expectations of continuity. Scenarios that could realistically narrow or reverse the margin include a major scandal, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican midterm surge capable of overcoming the district's baseline lean.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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