OpenAI’s confidential SEC filing in June 2026, paired with its $852 billion private valuation reaffirmed by the August $7 billion employee tender, anchors trader expectations for a 2027 IPO at a substantial premium. Rapid revenue expansion—Q2 annualized run rate exceeding $40 billion after an 18% sequential increase—combined with CEO Sam Altman’s reported $1 trillion valuation floor and CFO Sarah Friar’s comments linking earlier timing to continued business inflection, drive the 47.7% market-implied probability on a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion. Institutional demand evident in the $122 billion March round and AI sector multiples support the 35.3% combined odds on the $1–1.5 trillion bands, while the low 9.7% chance of no IPO by end-2027 reflects capital flexibility and filing optionality.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1.5T+ 47.7%
1T–1.25T 17.8%
1.25T–1.5T 18%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 9.7%
$144,821 Vol.
$144,821 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
<500B
<1%
500–750B
1%
750B–1T
7%
1T–1.25T
18%
1.25T–1.5T
18%
1.5T+
48%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
10%
1.5T+ 47.7%
1T–1.25T 17.8%
1.25T–1.5T 18%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 9.7%
$144,821 Vol.
$144,821 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
<500B
$11,254 Vol.
<1%
500–750B
$13,374 Vol.
1%
750B–1T
$20,357 Vol.
7%
1T–1.25T
$20,410 Vol.
18%
1.25T–1.5T
$12,004 Vol.
18%
1.5T+
$38,958 Vol.
48%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$28,464 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential SEC filing in June 2026, paired with its $852 billion private valuation reaffirmed by the August $7 billion employee tender, anchors trader expectations for a 2027 IPO at a substantial premium. Rapid revenue expansion—Q2 annualized run rate exceeding $40 billion after an 18% sequential increase—combined with CEO Sam Altman’s reported $1 trillion valuation floor and CFO Sarah Friar’s comments linking earlier timing to continued business inflection, drive the 47.7% market-implied probability on a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion. Institutional demand evident in the $122 billion March round and AI sector multiples support the 35.3% combined odds on the $1–1.5 trillion bands, while the low 9.7% chance of no IPO by end-2027 reflects capital flexibility and filing optionality.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$144,821End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential SEC filing in June 2026, paired with its $852 billion private valuation reaffirmed by the August $7 billion employee tender, anchors trader expectations for a 2027 IPO at a substantial premium. Rapid revenue expansion—Q2 annualized run rate exceeding $40 billion after an 18% sequential increase—combined with CEO Sam Altman’s reported $1 trillion valuation floor and CFO Sarah Friar’s comments linking earlier timing to continued business inflection, drive the 47.7% market-implied probability on a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion. Institutional demand evident in the $122 billion March round and AI sector multiples support the 35.3% combined odds on the $1–1.5 trillion bands, while the low 9.7% chance of no IPO by end-2027 reflects capital flexibility and filing optionality.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$144,821End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s confidential SEC filing in June 2026, paired with its $852 billion private valuation reaffirmed by the August $7 billion employee tender, anchors trader expectations for a 2027 IPO at a substantial premium. Rapid revenue expansion—Q2 annualized run rate exceeding $40 billion after an 18% sequential increase—combined with CEO Sam Altman’s reported $1 trillion valuation floor and CFO Sarah Friar’s comments linking earlier timing to continued business inflection, drive the 47.7% market-implied probability on a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion. Institutional demand evident in the $122 billion March round and AI sector multiples support the 35.3% combined odds on the $1–1.5 trillion bands, while the low 9.7% chance of no IPO by end-2027 reflects capital flexibility and filing optionality.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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