**Tarsier Pharma’s 99.1% market-implied probability of no IPO before September 2026 reflects the company’s failure to price and list by late August despite F-1 filings and amendments through mid-July 2026.** The Israel-based Phase 3 ophthalmic biotech had targeted a NYSE listing (ticker TARX) with 5.6 million shares at $8–10, implying a roughly $299 million fully diluted market cap at the midpoint to fund its TRS01 eye-drop and TRS02 injectable programs. That July window has passed without a pricing date or trading debut, consistent with typical delays for small-cap biotechs amid subdued equity-market sentiment and execution risk for pre-revenue clinical-stage issuers. The market consensus prices in continued postponement unless rapid regulatory or underwriter progress materializes before the resolution cutoff. A last-minute filing update or favorable shift in biotech risk appetite could still allow an early-September close, though such an outcome now appears remote given the elapsed timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo IPO before September 2026 99.0%
$350M-$400M <1%
$400M-$450M <1%
<$250M <1%
$16,609 Vol.
$16,609 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<$250M
<1%
$250M-$300M
<1%
$300M-$350M
<1%
$350M-$400M
<1%
$400M-$450M
<1%
>$450M
<1%
No IPO before September 2026
99%
No IPO before September 2026 99.0%
$350M-$400M <1%
$400M-$450M <1%
<$250M <1%
$16,609 Vol.
$16,609 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<$250M
$1,099 Vol.
<1%
$250M-$300M
$1,079 Vol.
<1%
$300M-$350M
$866 Vol.
<1%
$350M-$400M
$792 Vol.
<1%
$400M-$450M
$594 Vol.
<1%
>$450M
$680 Vol.
<1%
No IPO before September 2026
$11,500 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.**Tarsier Pharma’s 99.1% market-implied probability of no IPO before September 2026 reflects the company’s failure to price and list by late August despite F-1 filings and amendments through mid-July 2026.** The Israel-based Phase 3 ophthalmic biotech had targeted a NYSE listing (ticker TARX) with 5.6 million shares at $8–10, implying a roughly $299 million fully diluted market cap at the midpoint to fund its TRS01 eye-drop and TRS02 injectable programs. That July window has passed without a pricing date or trading debut, consistent with typical delays for small-cap biotechs amid subdued equity-market sentiment and execution risk for pre-revenue clinical-stage issuers. The market consensus prices in continued postponement unless rapid regulatory or underwriter progress materializes before the resolution cutoff. A last-minute filing update or favorable shift in biotech risk appetite could still allow an early-September close, though such an outcome now appears remote given the elapsed timeline.
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Jul 7, 2026, 9:12 AM ET
Volume
$16,609End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 7, 2026, 9:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.**Tarsier Pharma’s 99.1% market-implied probability of no IPO before September 2026 reflects the company’s failure to price and list by late August despite F-1 filings and amendments through mid-July 2026.** The Israel-based Phase 3 ophthalmic biotech had targeted a NYSE listing (ticker TARX) with 5.6 million shares at $8–10, implying a roughly $299 million fully diluted market cap at the midpoint to fund its TRS01 eye-drop and TRS02 injectable programs. That July window has passed without a pricing date or trading debut, consistent with typical delays for small-cap biotechs amid subdued equity-market sentiment and execution risk for pre-revenue clinical-stage issuers. The market consensus prices in continued postponement unless rapid regulatory or underwriter progress materializes before the resolution cutoff. A last-minute filing update or favorable shift in biotech risk appetite could still allow an early-September close, though such an outcome now appears remote given the elapsed timeline.
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Volume
$16,609End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 7, 2026, 9:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Tarsier Pharma’s 99.1% market-implied probability of no IPO before September 2026 reflects the company’s failure to price and list by late August despite F-1 filings and amendments through mid-July 2026.** The Israel-based Phase 3 ophthalmic biotech had targeted a NYSE listing (ticker TARX) with 5.6 million shares at $8–10, implying a roughly $299 million fully diluted market cap at the midpoint to fund its TRS01 eye-drop and TRS02 injectable programs. That July window has passed without a pricing date or trading debut, consistent with typical delays for small-cap biotechs amid subdued equity-market sentiment and execution risk for pre-revenue clinical-stage issuers. The market consensus prices in continued postponement unless rapid regulatory or underwriter progress materializes before the resolution cutoff. A last-minute filing update or favorable shift in biotech risk appetite could still allow an early-September close, though such an outcome now appears remote given the elapsed timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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