Anthropic’s accelerated timeline and confidential S-1 filing ahead of OpenAI drive the 94.5% market-implied probability that it will reach public markets first. The company is preparing a public filing as soon as late August 2026, with an October Nasdaq debut targeted at a valuation near or above $2 trillion, supported by rapid revenue growth exceeding $65 billion annualized run rate and established underwriters including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley. OpenAI, which filed a week later, has shifted toward a 2027 listing per its CFO, citing valuation ambitions near $1 trillion, substantial compute commitments, and public-reporting readiness. Realistic scenarios that could alter this include market volatility delaying Anthropic’s roadshow or OpenAI accelerating if its revenue trajectory strengthens further before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic
94% chance
$319,385 Vol.
$319,385 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
Anthropic
94% chance
$319,385 Vol.
$319,385 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s accelerated timeline and confidential S-1 filing ahead of OpenAI drive the 94.5% market-implied probability that it will reach public markets first. The company is preparing a public filing as soon as late August 2026, with an October Nasdaq debut targeted at a valuation near or above $2 trillion, supported by rapid revenue growth exceeding $65 billion annualized run rate and established underwriters including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley. OpenAI, which filed a week later, has shifted toward a 2027 listing per its CFO, citing valuation ambitions near $1 trillion, substantial compute commitments, and public-reporting readiness. Realistic scenarios that could alter this include market volatility delaying Anthropic’s roadshow or OpenAI accelerating if its revenue trajectory strengthens further before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$319,385End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s accelerated timeline and confidential S-1 filing ahead of OpenAI drive the 94.5% market-implied probability that it will reach public markets first. The company is preparing a public filing as soon as late August 2026, with an October Nasdaq debut targeted at a valuation near or above $2 trillion, supported by rapid revenue growth exceeding $65 billion annualized run rate and established underwriters including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley. OpenAI, which filed a week later, has shifted toward a 2027 listing per its CFO, citing valuation ambitions near $1 trillion, substantial compute commitments, and public-reporting readiness. Realistic scenarios that could alter this include market volatility delaying Anthropic’s roadshow or OpenAI accelerating if its revenue trajectory strengthens further before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$319,385End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s accelerated timeline and confidential S-1 filing ahead of OpenAI drive the 94.5% market-implied probability that it will reach public markets first. The company is preparing a public filing as soon as late August 2026, with an October Nasdaq debut targeted at a valuation near or above $2 trillion, supported by rapid revenue growth exceeding $65 billion annualized run rate and established underwriters including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley. OpenAI, which filed a week later, has shifted toward a 2027 listing per its CFO, citing valuation ambitions near $1 trillion, substantial compute commitments, and public-reporting readiness. Realistic scenarios that could alter this include market volatility delaying Anthropic’s roadshow or OpenAI accelerating if its revenue trajectory strengthens further before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions