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Finance·Chatgpt

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

icon for What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Finance·Chatgpt

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

$1.25T–$1.5T 25.7%

$1.75T–$2.0T 21%

$1.0T–$1.25T 20%

$1.5T–$1.75T 16.0%

Polymarket

$81,143 Vol.

$1.25T–$1.5T 25.7%

$1.75T–$2.0T 21%

$1.0T–$1.25T 20%

$1.5T–$1.75T 16.0%

Polymarket

$81,143 Vol.

<$1T

$12,376 Vol.

9%

$1.0T–$1.25T

$9,697 Vol.

20%

$1.25T–$1.5T

$6,029 Vol.

26%

$1.5T–$1.75T

$3,842 Vol.

16%

$1.75T–$2.0T

$12,712 Vol.

21%

$2.0T–$2.25T

$2,438 Vol.

6%

$2.25T–$2.5T

$2,876 Vol.

5%

$2.5T+

$31,173 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent statements from OpenAI CFO Sara Friar on August 19, 2026, indicating a likely 2027 public listing—or sooner if enterprise revenue inflects—anchor trader sentiment around the $1.25T–$1.5T band at 25.4% implied probability. Private valuations have climbed from roughly $730 billion in March 2026 to $852 billion, supported by ChatGPT subscriptions and API growth, yet the firm continues posting substantial losses. This creates tight clustering across $1T–$2T outcomes, with comparable AI and tech IPO multiples plus regulatory filing timelines as key swing factors. Market-implied odds reflect capital-weighted consensus on sustained hypergrowth needed to justify premiums above recent private rounds.

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price.

The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.

Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.

If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.

If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$81,143
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent statements from OpenAI CFO Sara Friar on August 19, 2026, indicating a likely 2027 public listing—or sooner if enterprise revenue inflects—anchor trader sentiment around the $1.25T–$1.5T band at 25.4% implied probability. Private valuations have climbed from roughly $730 billion in March 2026 to $852 billion, supported by ChatGPT subscriptions and API growth, yet the firm continues posting substantial losses. This creates tight clustering across $1T–$2T outcomes, with comparable AI and tech IPO multiples plus regulatory filing timelines as key swing factors. Market-implied odds reflect capital-weighted consensus on sustained hypergrowth needed to justify premiums above recent private rounds.

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price.

The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.

Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.

If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.

If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$81,143
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "$1.25T–$1.5T" at 26%, followed by "$1.75T–$2.0T" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 26¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?" has generated $81.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?" is "$1.25T–$1.5T" at 26%, meaning the market assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "$1.75T–$2.0T" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.