OpenAI’s surge in annualized revenue run rate past $40 billion, up from roughly $20 billion at the end of 2025, underpins trader consensus for a closing market capitalization above $1 trillion in its anticipated IPO. The company’s $852 billion private valuation after its March 2026 round, combined with CEO Sam Altman’s reported insistence on a $1 trillion floor and CFO Sarah Friar’s August 2026 comments signaling a possible 2027 debut or earlier if growth persists, has shifted implied probabilities toward the 1.5T+ and 1T–1.25T buckets. This reflects strong enterprise adoption and subscription momentum offset by high forward multiples near 25 times trailing revenue and uncertainty around exact timing or market reception.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1.5T+ 48.4%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 17.6%
1T–1.25T 16.1%
1.25T–1.5T 15%
$159,165 Vol.
$159,165 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
<500B
<1%
500–750B
1%
750B–1T
6%
1T–1.25T
16%
1.25T–1.5T
15%
1.5T+
48%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
18%
1.5T+ 48.4%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 17.6%
1T–1.25T 16.1%
1.25T–1.5T 15%
$159,165 Vol.
$159,165 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
<500B
$11,921 Vol.
<1%
500–750B
$16,478 Vol.
1%
750B–1T
$22,098 Vol.
6%
1T–1.25T
$21,710 Vol.
16%
1.25T–1.5T
$12,928 Vol.
15%
1.5T+
$40,066 Vol.
48%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$33,965 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s surge in annualized revenue run rate past $40 billion, up from roughly $20 billion at the end of 2025, underpins trader consensus for a closing market capitalization above $1 trillion in its anticipated IPO. The company’s $852 billion private valuation after its March 2026 round, combined with CEO Sam Altman’s reported insistence on a $1 trillion floor and CFO Sarah Friar’s August 2026 comments signaling a possible 2027 debut or earlier if growth persists, has shifted implied probabilities toward the 1.5T+ and 1T–1.25T buckets. This reflects strong enterprise adoption and subscription momentum offset by high forward multiples near 25 times trailing revenue and uncertainty around exact timing or market reception.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$159,165End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s surge in annualized revenue run rate past $40 billion, up from roughly $20 billion at the end of 2025, underpins trader consensus for a closing market capitalization above $1 trillion in its anticipated IPO. The company’s $852 billion private valuation after its March 2026 round, combined with CEO Sam Altman’s reported insistence on a $1 trillion floor and CFO Sarah Friar’s August 2026 comments signaling a possible 2027 debut or earlier if growth persists, has shifted implied probabilities toward the 1.5T+ and 1T–1.25T buckets. This reflects strong enterprise adoption and subscription momentum offset by high forward multiples near 25 times trailing revenue and uncertainty around exact timing or market reception.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$159,165End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s surge in annualized revenue run rate past $40 billion, up from roughly $20 billion at the end of 2025, underpins trader consensus for a closing market capitalization above $1 trillion in its anticipated IPO. The company’s $852 billion private valuation after its March 2026 round, combined with CEO Sam Altman’s reported insistence on a $1 trillion floor and CFO Sarah Friar’s August 2026 comments signaling a possible 2027 debut or earlier if growth persists, has shifted implied probabilities toward the 1.5T+ and 1T–1.25T buckets. This reflects strong enterprise adoption and subscription momentum offset by high forward multiples near 25 times trailing revenue and uncertainty around exact timing or market reception.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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