**OpenAI’s IPO closing market cap odds reflect strong trader conviction in sustained revenue momentum and management’s resolve to target a premium valuation.** The company’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026, followed by CFO Sarah Friar’s mid-August confirmation of a 2027 listing (or sooner if growth accelerates), has anchored expectations around a debut well above the $852 billion March 2026 private valuation. With annualized revenue run rate exceeding $40 billion—roughly double year-end 2025 levels—and Q2 revenue at $6.7 billion, traders see clear path to $1 trillion-plus pricing supported by enterprise expansion, AI platform leadership, and sector multiples. **Primary catalysts include Altman’s reported stance that anything below $1 trillion is a nonstarter, giving the company flexibility from its $122 billion prior raise and a recent $7 billion employee tender at the existing mark.** This setup favors outcomes clustered in the $1–1.5 trillion-plus range, as continued ARR inflection and favorable AI investor appetite could support a meaningful re-rating at listing. The low 9.7% probability assigned to no IPO by end-2027 further underscores consensus that the confidential filing and internal readiness position OpenAI to access public markets on its preferred timeline rather than rushing at a suboptimal price. Near-term sentiment will likely track further revenue updates and any signals on IPO window selection amid broader tech market conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1.5T+ 47.6%
1T–1.25T 18.2%
1.25T–1.5T 18%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 9.7%
$144,821 Vol.
$144,821 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
<500B
<1%
500–750B
1%
750B–1T
7%
1T–1.25T
18%
1.25T–1.5T
18%
1.5T+
48%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
10%
1.5T+ 47.6%
1T–1.25T 18.2%
1.25T–1.5T 18%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 9.7%
$144,821 Vol.
$144,821 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
<500B
$11,254 Vol.
<1%
500–750B
$13,374 Vol.
1%
750B–1T
$20,357 Vol.
7%
1T–1.25T
$20,410 Vol.
18%
1.25T–1.5T
$12,004 Vol.
18%
1.5T+
$38,958 Vol.
48%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$28,464 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.**OpenAI’s IPO closing market cap odds reflect strong trader conviction in sustained revenue momentum and management’s resolve to target a premium valuation.** The company’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026, followed by CFO Sarah Friar’s mid-August confirmation of a 2027 listing (or sooner if growth accelerates), has anchored expectations around a debut well above the $852 billion March 2026 private valuation. With annualized revenue run rate exceeding $40 billion—roughly double year-end 2025 levels—and Q2 revenue at $6.7 billion, traders see clear path to $1 trillion-plus pricing supported by enterprise expansion, AI platform leadership, and sector multiples.
**Primary catalysts include Altman’s reported stance that anything below $1 trillion is a nonstarter, giving the company flexibility from its $122 billion prior raise and a recent $7 billion employee tender at the existing mark.** This setup favors outcomes clustered in the $1–1.5 trillion-plus range, as continued ARR inflection and favorable AI investor appetite could support a meaningful re-rating at listing. The low 9.7% probability assigned to no IPO by end-2027 further underscores consensus that the confidential filing and internal readiness position OpenAI to access public markets on its preferred timeline rather than rushing at a suboptimal price. Near-term sentiment will likely track further revenue updates and any signals on IPO window selection amid broader tech market conditions.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$144,821End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.**OpenAI’s IPO closing market cap odds reflect strong trader conviction in sustained revenue momentum and management’s resolve to target a premium valuation.** The company’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026, followed by CFO Sarah Friar’s mid-August confirmation of a 2027 listing (or sooner if growth accelerates), has anchored expectations around a debut well above the $852 billion March 2026 private valuation. With annualized revenue run rate exceeding $40 billion—roughly double year-end 2025 levels—and Q2 revenue at $6.7 billion, traders see clear path to $1 trillion-plus pricing supported by enterprise expansion, AI platform leadership, and sector multiples.
**Primary catalysts include Altman’s reported stance that anything below $1 trillion is a nonstarter, giving the company flexibility from its $122 billion prior raise and a recent $7 billion employee tender at the existing mark.** This setup favors outcomes clustered in the $1–1.5 trillion-plus range, as continued ARR inflection and favorable AI investor appetite could support a meaningful re-rating at listing. The low 9.7% probability assigned to no IPO by end-2027 further underscores consensus that the confidential filing and internal readiness position OpenAI to access public markets on its preferred timeline rather than rushing at a suboptimal price. Near-term sentiment will likely track further revenue updates and any signals on IPO window selection amid broader tech market conditions.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$144,821End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**OpenAI’s IPO closing market cap odds reflect strong trader conviction in sustained revenue momentum and management’s resolve to target a premium valuation.** The company’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026, followed by CFO Sarah Friar’s mid-August confirmation of a 2027 listing (or sooner if growth accelerates), has anchored expectations around a debut well above the $852 billion March 2026 private valuation. With annualized revenue run rate exceeding $40 billion—roughly double year-end 2025 levels—and Q2 revenue at $6.7 billion, traders see clear path to $1 trillion-plus pricing supported by enterprise expansion, AI platform leadership, and sector multiples. **Primary catalysts include Altman’s reported stance that anything below $1 trillion is a nonstarter, giving the company flexibility from its $122 billion prior raise and a recent $7 billion employee tender at the existing mark.** This setup favors outcomes clustered in the $1–1.5 trillion-plus range, as continued ARR inflection and favorable AI investor appetite could support a meaningful re-rating at listing. The low 9.7% probability assigned to no IPO by end-2027 further underscores consensus that the confidential filing and internal readiness position OpenAI to access public markets on its preferred timeline rather than rushing at a suboptimal price. Near-term sentiment will likely track further revenue updates and any signals on IPO window selection amid broader tech market conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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