The NY-12 district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+33 Partisan Voter Index and the 2024 general election result of roughly 80% Democratic, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Jerrold Nadler's retirement opened the seat, but the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary produced a clear winner in Assemblymember Micah Lasher, who secured about 39% against a crowded field that included Alex Bores and others; Republican Caroline Shinkle advanced unopposed. Forecasters across outlets rate the November 3 general as Solid or Safe Democratic. The dominant position stems from consistent historical margins and limited Republican infrastructure in this Manhattan-based district. A major unforeseen scandal involving the Democratic nominee or an extreme national political realignment could theoretically narrow the gap, though both remain low-probability events based on available data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-12 House Election Winner
NY-12 House Election Winner
$32,827 Vol.
$32,827 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
<1%
$32,827 Vol.
$32,827 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$17,205 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$15,622 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-12 district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+33 Partisan Voter Index and the 2024 general election result of roughly 80% Democratic, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Jerrold Nadler's retirement opened the seat, but the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary produced a clear winner in Assemblymember Micah Lasher, who secured about 39% against a crowded field that included Alex Bores and others; Republican Caroline Shinkle advanced unopposed. Forecasters across outlets rate the November 3 general as Solid or Safe Democratic. The dominant position stems from consistent historical margins and limited Republican infrastructure in this Manhattan-based district. A major unforeseen scandal involving the Democratic nominee or an extreme national political realignment could theoretically narrow the gap, though both remain low-probability events based on available data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$32,827End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-12 district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+33 Partisan Voter Index and the 2024 general election result of roughly 80% Democratic, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Jerrold Nadler's retirement opened the seat, but the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary produced a clear winner in Assemblymember Micah Lasher, who secured about 39% against a crowded field that included Alex Bores and others; Republican Caroline Shinkle advanced unopposed. Forecasters across outlets rate the November 3 general as Solid or Safe Democratic. The dominant position stems from consistent historical margins and limited Republican infrastructure in this Manhattan-based district. A major unforeseen scandal involving the Democratic nominee or an extreme national political realignment could theoretically narrow the gap, though both remain low-probability events based on available data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,827End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The NY-12 district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+33 Partisan Voter Index and the 2024 general election result of roughly 80% Democratic, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Jerrold Nadler's retirement opened the seat, but the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary produced a clear winner in Assemblymember Micah Lasher, who secured about 39% against a crowded field that included Alex Bores and others; Republican Caroline Shinkle advanced unopposed. Forecasters across outlets rate the November 3 general as Solid or Safe Democratic. The dominant position stems from consistent historical margins and limited Republican infrastructure in this Manhattan-based district. A major unforeseen scandal involving the Democratic nominee or an extreme national political realignment could theoretically narrow the gap, though both remain low-probability events based on available data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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