New Jersey’s 12th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index, heavy Democratic voter registration advantage, and consistent past election margins exceeding 20 points. With longtime incumbent Bonnie Watson Coleman retiring, Democrat Adam Hamawy emerged from a crowded June 2026 primary to face Republican Gregg Mele in the November general election. Nonpartisan analysts across Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that assigns the Democratic Party a 93.5% implied probability. This positioning stems from the district’s structural fundamentals and limited recent polling movement. A late national Republican surge, unexpected scandal involving the Democratic nominee, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though such shifts would need to overcome the district’s established partisan baseline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-12 House Election Winner
NJ-12 House Election Winner
$22,311 Vol.
$22,311 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$22,311 Vol.
$22,311 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,221 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$8,089 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New Jersey’s 12th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index, heavy Democratic voter registration advantage, and consistent past election margins exceeding 20 points. With longtime incumbent Bonnie Watson Coleman retiring, Democrat Adam Hamawy emerged from a crowded June 2026 primary to face Republican Gregg Mele in the November general election. Nonpartisan analysts across Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that assigns the Democratic Party a 93.5% implied probability. This positioning stems from the district’s structural fundamentals and limited recent polling movement. A late national Republican surge, unexpected scandal involving the Democratic nominee, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though such shifts would need to overcome the district’s established partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$22,311End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New Jersey’s 12th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index, heavy Democratic voter registration advantage, and consistent past election margins exceeding 20 points. With longtime incumbent Bonnie Watson Coleman retiring, Democrat Adam Hamawy emerged from a crowded June 2026 primary to face Republican Gregg Mele in the November general election. Nonpartisan analysts across Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that assigns the Democratic Party a 93.5% implied probability. This positioning stems from the district’s structural fundamentals and limited recent polling movement. A late national Republican surge, unexpected scandal involving the Democratic nominee, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though such shifts would need to overcome the district’s established partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$22,311End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New Jersey’s 12th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index, heavy Democratic voter registration advantage, and consistent past election margins exceeding 20 points. With longtime incumbent Bonnie Watson Coleman retiring, Democrat Adam Hamawy emerged from a crowded June 2026 primary to face Republican Gregg Mele in the November general election. Nonpartisan analysts across Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that assigns the Democratic Party a 93.5% implied probability. This positioning stems from the district’s structural fundamentals and limited recent polling movement. A late national Republican surge, unexpected scandal involving the Democratic nominee, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though such shifts would need to overcome the district’s established partisan baseline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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