Incumbent Republican Chris Smith, serving NJ-04 since 1981 and tied as the House's longest-tenured member, faces Democrat Rachel Peace in the November 3, 2026 general election. Smith ran unopposed in the June Republican primary while Peace defeated John Blake for the Democratic nomination. The district, covering portions of Monmouth and Ocean counties, carries a consistent Republican tilt reflected in its Solid Republican and Safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with the incumbent's entrenched position, limited opposition, and absence of recent polling shifts or district-altering events. A credible challenge would require an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an exceptional national Democratic surge capable of overcoming the seat's structural lean within the remaining campaign window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-04 House Election Winner
NJ-04 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$5,448 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$4,026 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Chris Smith, serving NJ-04 since 1981 and tied as the House's longest-tenured member, faces Democrat Rachel Peace in the November 3, 2026 general election. Smith ran unopposed in the June Republican primary while Peace defeated John Blake for the Democratic nomination. The district, covering portions of Monmouth and Ocean counties, carries a consistent Republican tilt reflected in its Solid Republican and Safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with the incumbent's entrenched position, limited opposition, and absence of recent polling shifts or district-altering events. A credible challenge would require an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an exceptional national Democratic surge capable of overcoming the seat's structural lean within the remaining campaign window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$9,474End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Chris Smith, serving NJ-04 since 1981 and tied as the House's longest-tenured member, faces Democrat Rachel Peace in the November 3, 2026 general election. Smith ran unopposed in the June Republican primary while Peace defeated John Blake for the Democratic nomination. The district, covering portions of Monmouth and Ocean counties, carries a consistent Republican tilt reflected in its Solid Republican and Safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with the incumbent's entrenched position, limited opposition, and absence of recent polling shifts or district-altering events. A credible challenge would require an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an exceptional national Democratic surge capable of overcoming the seat's structural lean within the remaining campaign window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$9,474End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Chris Smith, serving NJ-04 since 1981 and tied as the House's longest-tenured member, faces Democrat Rachel Peace in the November 3, 2026 general election. Smith ran unopposed in the June Republican primary while Peace defeated John Blake for the Democratic nomination. The district, covering portions of Monmouth and Ocean counties, carries a consistent Republican tilt reflected in its Solid Republican and Safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with the incumbent's entrenched position, limited opposition, and absence of recent polling shifts or district-altering events. A credible challenge would require an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an exceptional national Democratic surge capable of overcoming the seat's structural lean within the remaining campaign window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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