Herb Conaway, the Democratic incumbent, faces Republican nominee Michael McGuire in New Jersey's 3rd congressional district, where recent primary results and nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic. The district's voter composition across Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties has consistently supported Democratic candidates in recent cycles, reinforced by Conaway's unopposed primary and fundraising edge. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural advantages and limited polling volatility heading into the November 3 general election. A late national partisan shift, major candidate-specific developments such as health or ethics issues, or unusually high turnout swings could narrow the margin, though such factors have not materialized in available data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-03 House Election Winner
NJ-03 House Election Winner
$26,418 Vol.
$26,418 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
7%
$26,418 Vol.
$26,418 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$12,895 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$13,523 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Herb Conaway, the Democratic incumbent, faces Republican nominee Michael McGuire in New Jersey's 3rd congressional district, where recent primary results and nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic. The district's voter composition across Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties has consistently supported Democratic candidates in recent cycles, reinforced by Conaway's unopposed primary and fundraising edge. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural advantages and limited polling volatility heading into the November 3 general election. A late national partisan shift, major candidate-specific developments such as health or ethics issues, or unusually high turnout swings could narrow the margin, though such factors have not materialized in available data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$26,418End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Herb Conaway, the Democratic incumbent, faces Republican nominee Michael McGuire in New Jersey's 3rd congressional district, where recent primary results and nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic. The district's voter composition across Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties has consistently supported Democratic candidates in recent cycles, reinforced by Conaway's unopposed primary and fundraising edge. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural advantages and limited polling volatility heading into the November 3 general election. A late national partisan shift, major candidate-specific developments such as health or ethics issues, or unusually high turnout swings could narrow the margin, though such factors have not materialized in available data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,418End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Herb Conaway, the Democratic incumbent, faces Republican nominee Michael McGuire in New Jersey's 3rd congressional district, where recent primary results and nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic. The district's voter composition across Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties has consistently supported Democratic candidates in recent cycles, reinforced by Conaway's unopposed primary and fundraising edge. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural advantages and limited polling volatility heading into the November 3 general election. A late national partisan shift, major candidate-specific developments such as health or ethics issues, or unusually high turnout swings could narrow the margin, though such factors have not materialized in available data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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