Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district, anchored in Philadelphia, carries one of the strongest Democratic partisan leans in the country, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index exceeding D+40. Incumbent Dwight Evans announced in June 2025 that he would not seek reelection, creating an open seat. Chris Rabb secured the Democratic nomination in the May 2026 primary against well-funded challengers. No Republican candidate filed for the primary, leaving only an Independent opponent in the November general election. These structural factors have produced overwhelming trader consensus on a Democratic hold. Late developments such as candidate withdrawal, major scandals, or unforeseen shifts in turnout could theoretically alter the outcome, though historical results in comparable districts show limited precedent for such reversals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPA-03 House Election Winner
PA-03 House Election Winner
$31,010 Vol.
$31,010 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
<1%
$31,010 Vol.
$31,010 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$19,654 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$11,356 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district, anchored in Philadelphia, carries one of the strongest Democratic partisan leans in the country, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index exceeding D+40. Incumbent Dwight Evans announced in June 2025 that he would not seek reelection, creating an open seat. Chris Rabb secured the Democratic nomination in the May 2026 primary against well-funded challengers. No Republican candidate filed for the primary, leaving only an Independent opponent in the November general election. These structural factors have produced overwhelming trader consensus on a Democratic hold. Late developments such as candidate withdrawal, major scandals, or unforeseen shifts in turnout could theoretically alter the outcome, though historical results in comparable districts show limited precedent for such reversals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$31,010End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district, anchored in Philadelphia, carries one of the strongest Democratic partisan leans in the country, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index exceeding D+40. Incumbent Dwight Evans announced in June 2025 that he would not seek reelection, creating an open seat. Chris Rabb secured the Democratic nomination in the May 2026 primary against well-funded challengers. No Republican candidate filed for the primary, leaving only an Independent opponent in the November general election. These structural factors have produced overwhelming trader consensus on a Democratic hold. Late developments such as candidate withdrawal, major scandals, or unforeseen shifts in turnout could theoretically alter the outcome, though historical results in comparable districts show limited precedent for such reversals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$31,010End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district, anchored in Philadelphia, carries one of the strongest Democratic partisan leans in the country, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index exceeding D+40. Incumbent Dwight Evans announced in June 2025 that he would not seek reelection, creating an open seat. Chris Rabb secured the Democratic nomination in the May 2026 primary against well-funded challengers. No Republican candidate filed for the primary, leaving only an Independent opponent in the November general election. These structural factors have produced overwhelming trader consensus on a Democratic hold. Late developments such as candidate withdrawal, major scandals, or unforeseen shifts in turnout could theoretically alter the outcome, though historical results in comparable districts show limited precedent for such reversals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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