Pennsylvania’s 2nd Congressional District, centered in Philadelphia, remains a solidly Democratic seat where incumbent Brendan Boyle faces Republican Jessica Arriaga on November 3, 2026. Boyle secured the Democratic nomination without opposition after the May primaries, while Arriaga advanced unopposed on the Republican side. Nonpartisan forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with Boyle’s prior general-election margins exceeding 70 percent. The district’s voter composition and Boyle’s substantial fundraising and cash reserves underpin trader consensus around a 94-95 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A shift would require an unforeseen late-cycle event such as a major scandal or health crisis capable of altering turnout patterns in this heavily Democratic Philadelphia-based constituency.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPA-02 House Election Winner
PA-02 House Election Winner
$35,660 Vol.
$35,660 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
2%
$35,660 Vol.
$35,660 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$6,352 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$29,308 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Pennsylvania’s 2nd Congressional District, centered in Philadelphia, remains a solidly Democratic seat where incumbent Brendan Boyle faces Republican Jessica Arriaga on November 3, 2026. Boyle secured the Democratic nomination without opposition after the May primaries, while Arriaga advanced unopposed on the Republican side. Nonpartisan forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with Boyle’s prior general-election margins exceeding 70 percent. The district’s voter composition and Boyle’s substantial fundraising and cash reserves underpin trader consensus around a 94-95 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A shift would require an unforeseen late-cycle event such as a major scandal or health crisis capable of altering turnout patterns in this heavily Democratic Philadelphia-based constituency.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$35,660End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Pennsylvania’s 2nd Congressional District, centered in Philadelphia, remains a solidly Democratic seat where incumbent Brendan Boyle faces Republican Jessica Arriaga on November 3, 2026. Boyle secured the Democratic nomination without opposition after the May primaries, while Arriaga advanced unopposed on the Republican side. Nonpartisan forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with Boyle’s prior general-election margins exceeding 70 percent. The district’s voter composition and Boyle’s substantial fundraising and cash reserves underpin trader consensus around a 94-95 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A shift would require an unforeseen late-cycle event such as a major scandal or health crisis capable of altering turnout patterns in this heavily Democratic Philadelphia-based constituency.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,660End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Pennsylvania’s 2nd Congressional District, centered in Philadelphia, remains a solidly Democratic seat where incumbent Brendan Boyle faces Republican Jessica Arriaga on November 3, 2026. Boyle secured the Democratic nomination without opposition after the May primaries, while Arriaga advanced unopposed on the Republican side. Nonpartisan forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with Boyle’s prior general-election margins exceeding 70 percent. The district’s voter composition and Boyle’s substantial fundraising and cash reserves underpin trader consensus around a 94-95 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A shift would require an unforeseen late-cycle event such as a major scandal or health crisis capable of altering turnout patterns in this heavily Democratic Philadelphia-based constituency.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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